Mexico Steel Tariffs and Certification
Mexico Prepares Phase 1 of NOM-251-SE-2025 Steel Certification
The Ministry of Economy (SE) in Mexico is preparing the implementation of Phase 1 of Official Mexican Standard NOM-251-SE-2025, which was published on February 12, 2026.
The measure establishes mandatory technical certification and testing requirements for 6 structural steel categories out of 26 total steel product categories used in construction and infrastructure.
The transition from voluntary guidelines to a legally binding framework aims to prevent substandard imports, enhance supply chain traceability, and ensure infrastructure quality. Enforcement will be co-managed by customs authorities (ANAM) and national consumer protection agencies (PROFECO).
More News
Mexico's Footwear Tariffs Take Effect as Imports from China Fall 60%
In the first five months of 2026, Mexican footwear imports from China fell by 60%, from Vietnam by 10%, and from Indonesia by 7% compared with the same period in 2025, according to data from the Guanajuato Ministry of Economy.
Total footwear imports from these three countries declined by approximately 23% to US$722 million. Their combined share of Mexican footwear imports dropped from 81% in 2025 to 75% in the first five months of 2026.
Government agencies attribute the decline to trade policy measures, specifically anti-dumping duties on specified Chinese imports and an increase in customs duties to 35% for several products in the footwear sector. The Mexican government's measures to reduce Asian footwear imports are starting to show effects.
Mexico Proposes US-UK Style Steel Tariff Framework for USMCA Review and Prepares NOM-251
To address concerns that Section 232 steel tariffs increase costs for cross-border supply chains, Mexico has proposed adopting a framework modeled on the US-UK trade agreement for the USMCA joint review.
The proposal conditions tariff-free market access on strict origin verification and "melt-and-pour" requirements to restrict third-country steel transshipment.
In parallel, the US Section 232 tariff regime was modified in April to apply duties to derivative products based on the value of their steel content. In June, the required North American steel content threshold for preferential treatment was lowered from 95% to 85%, alongside temporary tariff relief through 2027 for specific industrial equipment categories.
Additionally, Canada maintains retaliatory tariffs on US$11.13 billion worth of US steel and aluminum goods.
More than 1000 Chinese companies already operate in Mexico
On August 6, 2026, it was reported that more than 1,000 Chinese companies operate in Mexico, seeking to use the country as a platform to access the North American market.
Although bilateral trade between Mexico and China grew 9.23% in 2024, exceeding 109,000 million dollars, Mexico maintains a deep trade deficit. In 2023, China exported almost 130,000 million dollars to Mexico, while Mexico exported 20,000 million dollars.
Chinese-origin companies such as LONGi Green Energy and Refaxo have installed solar energy projects in northern Mexico, supplying more than 200,000 households.
Facing the USMCA review in 2026, the United States is monitoring Mexico over concerns that it functions as a back door for Chinese products and is pressuring to stop incentives for manufacturers such as BYD. During the China-CELAC Forum, President Xi Jinping announced a 9,000 million dollar credit line for Latin America.
Propose integrating all sectors for the expansion of the Port of Manzanillo in Cuyutlán
On August 6, 2026, businessman Héctor Mora Gómez raised the need to include all local sectors through dialogue in the expansion project of the Port of Manzanillo towards Vaso II of the Laguna de Cuyutlán (New Port Manzanillo-Cuyutlán Project).
The expansion contemplates an operational surface of 1,880 hectares that will allow tripling the current capacity for movement of import and export goods, compared with the current 450 hectares that last year handled 3.9 million TEU.
Expert Outlook
Core judgment
Mexico is shifting steel import control from tariff negotiation alone toward dual-track origin and certification barriers. Phase 1 of NOM-251-SE-2025, published 12 February 2026 and set to take effect 12 August 2026, converts voluntary standards into ANAM/PROFECO-enforced mandatory certification for six structural steel categories, while Mexico’s USMCA proposal seeks US-UK-style melt-and-pour origin rules to curb third-country transshipment. For China-origin FCL steel and steel-intensive construction cargo, compliance friction and origin scrutiny are set to rise even if headline tariff rates remain negotiated.
Drivers decoded
Hard facts: SE is preparing Phase 1 of NOM-251-SE-2025 (published 12 February 2026; enforcement from 12 August 2026) covering six of 26 structural steel categories used in construction and infrastructure—cold-rolled grade-60 corrugated rebar, welded wire mesh, triangular welded wire trusses, welded wire armatures for castles and lintels/dalas, low-alloy corrugated rebar, and corrugated rebar for concrete reinforcement—shifting from voluntary guidelines to a legally binding framework co-managed by ANAM and PROFECO. In parallel, Mexico has proposed a US-UK-style USMCA framework conditioning tariff-free access on strict origin verification and melt-and-pour requirements; the US modified Section 232 in April to duty derivative products on steel content value and in June cut the North American steel content threshold from 95% to 85%, with temporary relief through 2027 for some industrial equipment.
Soft signals: the multi-month publish-to-enforcement lag plus ANAM as co-enforcer points to a compliance choke point rather than a pure standards update; Mexico’s origin language tracks US anti-transshipment logic while the 85% threshold cut shows US flexibility without abandoning pressure.
Logic: Mexican customs and regulators (ANAM/SE/PROFECO) pursue tax collection, infrastructure quality, and blocking substandard or non-origin-compliant steel via certification mandates and USMCA origin design. Chinese exporters and Mexican FCL importers seek predictable landed cost and clearance and remain highly sensitive to new cert mandates and origin checks that can delay release or raise compliance cost, with volume shifting as their main lever. The US government uses Section 232 content duties, content-threshold design, and USMCA review leverage as negotiation chips to restructure supply chains and limit third-country circumvention.
Chain effects
NOM-251 Phase 1 preparation—mandatory certification for the six structural categories with ANAM co-enforcement—means importers of covered steel face certification, testing, and customs verification before release, raising clearance friction and documentation burden on China-origin FCL structural steel into construction supply chains. Separately, if Mexico’s melt-and-pour and strict-origin proposal advances in the USMCA review, preferential treatment for non-qualifying third-country steel tightens, so China-linked steel and steel-content cargoes face elevated origin scrutiny and potential loss of preferential pathways into Mexico. Both chains concentrate cost and delay risk on China-origin FCL structural steel and steel-intensive construction cargo; no material offsetting winner among the mapped parties is established in the current evidence.
Scenarios and signposts
Confirmed: NOM-251-SE-2025 Phase 1 was published 12 February 2026 and will take effect 12 August 2026 for the six structural categories listed above (cold-rolled grade-60 corrugated rebar; welded steel wire mesh; triangular welded wire trusses; welded wire armatures for castles and lintels/dalas; low-alloy corrugated rebar; corrugated rebar for concrete reinforcement). Still open: SE/ANAM transition-period and operational guidance on certificate presentation and inspection intensity for covered steel FCL; USMCA joint-review language on melt-and-pour versus status-quo content rules; any further US 232 content-threshold or derivative-product duty adjustments affecting Mexico-bound steel content; PROFECO market-surveillance actions on certified versus non-certified structural steel.
Baseline (likely): Phase 1 proceeds toward mandatory certification for the six categories with ANAM co-enforcement, and Mexico keeps melt-and-pour origin language in USMCA talks; China-origin FCL structural steel faces rising documentation and origin scrutiny without an immediate across-the-board tariff shock—triggered if SE continues implementation steps as prepared and the USMCA review keeps origin/transshipment on the agenda without a near-term deal.
Optimistic (possible): Phase 1 rollout is phased or softened and/or USMCA talks yield workable origin verification with limited immediate restriction, while temporary 232-related relief pathways remain usable for some equipment, moderating pressure on covered FCL steel—triggered by clear transition guidance or a constructive origin outcome that does not abruptly exclude common third-country melt sources.
Pessimistic (possible): Phase 1 enforcement hardens quickly with ANAM/PROFECO checks and melt-and-pour/strict-origin demands advance, tightening preferential access for non-qualifying steel so China-linked structural steel FCL sees heavier holds, rejections, or loss of preference—triggered by early hard application of Phase 1 without a soft landing plus USMCA adoption of strict melt-and-pour conditions.
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