Mexico locks China FCL into structural crackdown: bike duties nearly 4x to $57.19 as freight hits USD 7,000-8,100/FEU under dual cost-clearance pressure

Customs Enforcement

Mexico anti-dumping enforcement against China

Mexico's Ministry of Economy has confirmed anti-dumping duties on imported finished and semi-finished hollow profiles from China and the US. The rates are set at US$1.93/kg for China and US$1.72/kg for the US. These replace the provisional rates of US$1.88/kg and US$1.62/kg respectively that were imposed on December 31, 2025 for a four-month period. The affected products fall under HS Code 7604.

On September 14, 2026, Mexico's Ministry of Economy (SE) issued a definitive affirmative anti-dumping determination on aluminum profiles and bars originating from China. The finalized anti-dumping duty is set at US$1.58 per kilogram under TIGIE tariff codes 7604.10.02, 7604.10.99, 7604.29.01, 7604.29.02, and 7604.29.99. This increases from the preliminary provisional duty of US$1.55 per kilogram established on December 29, 2025.

On September 15, 2026, the Ministry of Economy of Mexico issued a final ruling on the sunset review of anti-dumping duties on children's bicycles originating from China. It decided to raise the current anti-dumping duty from 13.12 USD per unit to 57.19 USD per unit under HS Code 8712.00.05.

Mexico's 2027 budget plan projects MX$2.806 billion from import penalties. This represents a 50.4% real increase in countervailing-duty revenue compared to 2026. At the same time, it cuts the operating budget of the International Trade Practices Unit (UPCI) by 41.1% in real terms. Out of 97 active duties managed by UPCI, 46.39% (45 measures) target Chinese goods compared to 10 targeting US products. Basic metals and downstream manufactures comprise 61.85% of total duties.

During the first half of 2026, Mexico imported 158,571 light vehicles from China. This represents a 31.1% drop in volume and a 35.4% drop in value to 2,159 million dollars compared to the same period in 2025. The decline followed the tariff reform in force since January 1, 2026, which applied tariffs of up to 50% on 1,463 HS Codes to countries without a trade agreement. The market share of Chinese-origin brands remained at 17% between January and August 2026.

Increased penalties and program suspensions

On September 14, 2026, the Mexican Foreign Trade Council (COMCE) Northeast alerted foreign trade operators in Mexico to the severe customs regime sanctions applicable in 2026 after the Customs Law reforms in force since January 1. The organization's president, Javier Cendejas, detailed that the fine for failing to prove non-tariff regulations and restrictions rose from the previous range of 70%-100% to between 250% and 300% of the commercial value of the goods. The sanction no longer distinguishes between capture error and deliberate simulation. It also applies to temporary imports carried out outside an authorized IMMEX program.

Failure to comply with Official Mexican Standards (NOM) for commercial information authorizes the precautionary seizure of goods. Omission of foreign trade contributions is sanctioned with 130% to 150% of the omitted contributions. Fines for inaccurate data in pedimentos range from 5,630 to 9,340 pesos per document. Fines for value and commercialization information range from 53,500 to 106,970 pesos. Fines for inventory control range from 27,070 to 54,180 pesos.

During the first half of 2026, SAT collection from customs infractions rose 131% year-on-year. It reached 2,986 million pesos versus 1,291 million in the same period of 2025, surpassing the 2,584 million obtained in all of 2025. Between September and November, the SAT Master Audit Plan 2026 concentrates foreign trade and undervaluation reviews aligned with information exchange between SAT and the National Customs Agency of Mexico (ANAM).

COMCE Northeast also issued an alert for exporting companies regarding the increase in customs reviews by SAT. According to figures from the organization presented by Javier Cendejas, since 2021 Mexico has accumulated 65,419 suspensions of the Importers' Registry, with 9 out of 10 concentrated between 2025 and 2026. So far in 2026, 441 IMMEX programs have been temporarily suspended and 385 IVA and IEPS certifications have been cancelled. COMCE Northeast warned that the loss of these registries and incentives directly puts the operation of industrial plants in Mexico at risk, given that companies with IVA and IEPS certification represent 97% of the value of the country's temporary imports.

Customs compliance and seizure cases

The Secretariat of the Navy (Marina), in coordination with the National Agency of Customs of Mexico (ANAM) and the Secretariat of Security and Citizen Protection (SSPC), immobilized 54,432 kilograms of anhydrous dextrose USP (declared as 'DEXTROSE ANHYDROUS') at the Manzanillo Customs, Colima. The shipment originated from Qingdao, China, after an alert and intervention requested by the General Prosecutor's Office (FGR). The authorities identified the substance as a customs risk because it could be used improperly as a diluting or cutting agent in the clandestine production of drugs or in the adulteration of pharmaceutical products.

On September 15, 2026, trade media Industrial Softlanding published an operational guide detailing compliance alternatives to Mexico's IMMEX regime, focusing on the Sectoral Promotion Program (PROSEC). Unlike IMMEX, which suspends import duties exclusively for goods designated for re-export, PROSEC provides reduced tariff rates for sector-specific inputs regardless of whether final products are exported or sold in the Mexican domestic market. The analysis noted that when temporarily imported IMMEX goods change regime for domestic sales, duty suspension ceases and full duties apply. This leads manufacturers with mixed sales models to combine IMMEX with PROSEC. In contrast, definitive imports require upfront payment of full duties and VAT without ongoing inventory tracking obligations.

Customs Operations

SAT System Outages Impacting Customs Operations

On September 15, 2026, the Confederation of Associations of Customs Brokers of the Mexican Republic (CAAAREM) reported that connectivity outages between the Tax Administration Service (SAT) and national customs offices remained active.

These outages caused ongoing delays in foreign trade operations, particularly at northern border crossings in Tamaulipas, including Nuevo Laredo, Reynosa, and Matamoros.

CAAAREM notified its members through a letter issued at 09:40 hours that the SAT presented a nationwide connection failure with all customs offices in Mexico.

The system failure halted the processing of digital validation files and the reception of register 001 data across all national customs facilities. This prevented the generation of the Customs Dispatch Operation Document (DODA) and forced manual operations at several inspection points.

Cargo trucks faced long wait times, with traffic queues at Nuevo Laredo reaching up to 14 kilometers before temporarily dropping to 9 kilometers after partial service restoration.

This led to vehicular congestion on international bridges, delays in the delivery of goods and inputs, and million-dollar losses for the foreign trade sector according to estimates from the Mexican Council of Foreign Trade (Comce) Northeast.

Exporters and logistics operators warned that these system disruptions have increased storage costs, extended delivery times, and congested cross-border logistics lanes connecting Mexico and Texas.

As of September 15, 2026, SAT connectivity outages remain active nationwide, forcing manual customs operations at northern borders with queues up to 14 km and causing delays and losses.

Customs Reforms

Customs Law Reform to Combat Import Undervaluation

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum submitted a legislative proposal on September 15, 2026, to reform the Customs Law as part of the 2027 Economic Package sent to the Chamber of Deputies. The proposal introduces amendments to Articles 144, 151, 153, 154, and 177 to combat merchandise undervaluation and protect domestic manufacturers.

The reform completely eliminates the 50% undervaluation threshold previously required for customs authorities to initiate precautionary seizures (embargo precautorio) of imported goods. It removes the condition that the declared value in the pedimento must be at least 50% lower than that of identical or similar products, allowing the customs authority to initiate reviews and precautionary embargoes for any downward discrepancy without a minimum percentage and applying value determination pursuant to Articles 72 and 73 of the Customs Law.

Under revised Article 144, customs authorities will automatically initiate verification powers (facultades de comprobación), including home visits and audit reviews, when undervaluation is identified.

National Customs Agency of Mexico (ANAM) data indicates that between January 2025 and August 2026, authorities identified 2,541 import operations valued at MX$1.587 billion (US$92.56 million) declared below legal reference values that could not be seized due to the 50% limit. During 2025, 1,349 cases were identified for a commercial value of 1,138 million pesos that did not reach the 50%, and between January and August of 2026 another 1,192 cases for 449 million pesos.

The reform also eliminates the exception that avoided the embargo through the presentation of a customs guarantee account in goods subject to estimated prices, affecting sectors such as footwear, textile and apparel. These sectors in 2025 totaled 44,232 operations for 13,622 million pesos and between January and June of 2026 registered 27,013 operations for 6,879 million.

For goods without estimated price, if the value difference is less than 20%, the substitution of the embargo may be made in cash or through a customs guarantee account; if the gap is equal to or greater than 20%, only a cash deposit within a period of 10 days will be admitted.

On September 14, 2026, the Finance and Public Credit Commission of the Chamber of Deputies declared itself in permanent session to issue an opinion on the 2027 Economic Package and agreed on the work route to analyze the initiative to reform the Customs Law sent by the Federal Executive on September 8. The commission approved summoning the Deputy Secretary of Finance (María del Carmen Bonilla Rodríguez), the Deputy Secretary of Revenues (Carlos Gabriel Lerma Cotera), the head of the SAT (Antonio Martínez Dagnino) and the tax prosecutor (Grisel Galeano García) to appear, in addition to convening work tables with productive sectors and experts.

Eduardo Díaz, vice president of the Customs and Trade Facilitation Commission at ICC Mexico, warned that expanding seizure triggers risks overwhelming customs warehouses and creating operational bottlenecks at ports. Trade experts warned that the reform risks triggering massive merchandise seizures, overwhelming customs facilities, and causing severe saturation in customs warehouses prior to clearance.

US-Mexico Trade Talks

US-Mexico AI Hardware Origin Rules

The US government is pushing Mexican officials to accept new rules for exports of artificial intelligence hardware to prevent Chinese companies and other foreign firms from avoiding tariffs.

The proposal would restrict the amount of components coming from outside North America in the production of AI hardware, which includes chips and servers.

AI hardware has become Mexico's top export to the US, surpassing automobiles this year. In 2026, Mexico exported $82.9 billion in computer servers during the first half of the year, with server exports surging 172.1% year-over-year in the 12 months through June and the U.S. receiving 93.9% of those shipments.

Mexico's component imports from Taiwan surged 220% in H1 2026.

The negotiations on these rules are developing within the framework of the T-MEC review, with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Mexican Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard discussing tighter sourcing rules to restrict non-market inputs across strategic supply chains.

Washington seeks to implement North American content requirements on AI hardware similar to the 75% regional value content rule established for automobiles under USMCA. During USMCA negotiations the U.S. negotiating team requested Mexico to tighten rules of origin for AI servers and hardware, seeking higher North American content requirements beyond the 75% threshold.

While Mexico agreed to raise tariffs on Chinese imports and curb duty-free transshipments, Mexican officials resisted explicit U.S. demands for mandatory American-made component ratios to protect the North American free trade framework.

A new round of conversations between trade officials is scheduled to begin the following week in Washington. Negotiations on rules of origin for AI hardware under the USMCA review remain ongoing, with Mexico resisting explicit demands for mandatory American-made component ratios.

US-Mexico Interim Tariff Talks

US and Mexican trade negotiators are accelerating efforts to reach an interim understanding on Section 232 tariffs ahead of the U.S. midterm elections in November 2026.

On September 14, 2026, Global Sources reported that a fourth round of trade discussions within the USMCA review framework is scheduled for the following week. Both sides aim to ease investor uncertainty amid tariff changes and economic cooling in Mexico.

The negotiations encompass automotive rules of origin, digital trade, agriculture, and cross-border sourcing and logistics regulations.

The president of the Consejo Coordinador Empresarial (CCE), José Medina Mora, requested the Mexican government to negotiate the reduction of the Section 232 tariffs applied by the United States to sectors such as the automotive, steel, aluminum and their components, in the framework of the fourth round of T-MEC review scheduled for Monday, September 21, 2026.

Representatives of the CCE met on Friday, September 11, 2026 with the Secretary of Economy, Marcelo Ebrard, to define the agenda of the private sector and seek a tariff agreement with the U.S. before its midterm elections.

Mexico and the United States negotiate an interim agreement to reduce the tariffs applied under Section 232, which tax Mexican automobiles with 25% and steel and aluminum with 50%.

President Claudia Sheinbaum held a videoconference with the U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick, while the Secretary of Economy, Marcelo Ebrard, met in Washington with the team of the trade representative Jamieson Greer.

The fourth round of conversations is scheduled for the end of September 2026, with the goal of reaching an arrangement before November 3. Mexico and the United States are preparing for a fourth round of trade negotiations to secure an interim understanding ahead of the US midterm elections in November 2026, following the collapse of talks between the US and Canada.

The bilateral negotiations focus on the operating environment for supply chains spanning automotive, electronics, mobile technology, and logistics. A central issue in the talks is the potential removal of Section 232 tariffs on aluminum, steel, and automobiles.

More News

Mexico Implements NOM-251-SE-2025 Standard to Regulate Steel Product Quality and Restrict Imports

Mexico enforced the NOM-251-SE-2025 national quality standard on August 12, 2026, establishing mandatory technical specifications and quality requirements for steel products to restrict low-quality, subsidized, or dumped imports from Asian and Middle Eastern origins.

The standard implementation occurs in two distinct phases based on product classification. Phase 1, effective August 12, 2026, mandates quality compliance certification for six structural steel categories comprising standard rebar, low-alloy rebar, cold-rolled rebar, welded wire mesh, triangular steel trusses, and steel armatures for castles and lintels.

Phase 2, effective August 13, 2027, expands certification requirements to 20 additional product families, including structural tubing, steel plate, galvanized sheet, and steel cables.

Mexico Imposes Countervailing Duties on Imported Aluminum Profiles and PVC Tarpaulins

Mexico imposed a provisional countervailing duty of 0.7334 dollars per kilogram for a period of six months on imports of polyvinyl chloride (PVC) tarpaulins with textile reinforcement originating from China, classified under HS Codes 3921.12.01, 3921.90.99 and 3926.90.99.

Both resolutions were communicated to ANAM and SAT for their application by SHCP throughout the national territory.

Asia-Origin Freight Rates to Latin America Hit USD 7,000-8,100/FEU Amid Capacity Rationing

Early September container rate quotations for China-origin shipments to Mexico and the West Coast of South America reached approximately USD 7,000 to USD 8,100 per FEU, while rates to the East Coast of South America reached USD 8,700 to USD 9,700 per FEU.

Ocean carriers implemented capacity rationing and prioritized higher-yield services, creating tighter market conditions on Americas-bound routes compared to Asia-Europe lanes.

Mexico's Aluminum Supply Chain Undergoes Structural Changes

On September 15, 2026, market intelligence firm Platts reported at the Aluméxico Summit & Expo that North American tariff adjustments, geopolitical tensions, and maritime logistics disruptions linked to Iran have reshaped Mexico's primary aluminum import supply chain.

Platts analyst Samuel Burleigh stated that the CIF Mexico benchmark for primary aluminum rose from averages of $300 per metric ton in the previous cycle to $400 per metric ton at the start of the period, with spot offers at the port of Veracruz peaking up to $600 per metric ton between April and June and reaching an official maximum price assessed by Platts of nearly $560 per metric ton, doubling last year's benchmark due to elevated ocean freight costs and global risk premiums.

The price surge and volatility have accelerated a structural shift in Mexican primary aluminum import sources, with South Africa, the United Arab Emirates, Canada, and Australia establishing themselves as the main raw material suppliers to Mexican ports.

Panama Canal Reduces Daily Panamax Slots to 23 While Postponing Neopanamax Draft Cut

Starting September 15, 2026, daily Panamax booking slots at the Panama Canal were reduced from 25 to 23, while Neopanamax booking slots remained at 9 slots per day, keeping 63 Neopanamax reservation slots per week available.

Concurrently, the Panama Canal Authority postponed a planned reduction in the maximum allowable Neopanamax draft from 14.63 meters (48 feet) to 14.48 meters (47.5 feet) until October 1, 2026, allowing vessels to continue transiting under the 14.63-meter ceiling.

Port of Manzanillo Implements 24/7 Customs Operations as Contecon Launches Phase 4 Terminal Expansion

On September 15, 2026, Mexico Business News reported that customs authorities at the Port of Manzanillo implemented 24/7 customs clearance operations on Thursdays and Fridays to relieve external infrastructure bottlenecks caused by a 70%+ increase in import volume between 2021 and 2026.

José Antonio Contreras, CEO of Contecon Manzanillo (the ICTSI subsidiary operating Specialized Container Terminal II), stated that the 24/7 schedule enabled the terminal to achieve a single-day evacuation record of over 2,000 containers.

Through July 2026, the Port of Manzanillo registered nearly 4% growth in imports and 18% growth in exports. Concurrently, Contecon Manzanillo began Phase 4 of its terminal expansion project, which will increase installed container handling capacity by more than 40%.

Contecon Manzanillo Set to Reach 2.5 Million TEU Capacity

Contecon Manzanillo, operator of Specialized Container Terminal II at Mexico's Port of Manzanillo, has initiated Phase 4 of its expansion program to increase installed capacity by more than 40%, moving from 1.4 million TEUs to nearly 2.5 million TEUs by the second half of next year.

The port experienced import volume growth exceeding 70% between 2021 and 2026. To address bottlenecks, customs authorities instituted 24/7 operations on Thursdays and Fridays, resulting in a single-day evacuation record of over 2,000 containers.

Infrastructure developments supporting the terminal include SICT's investment in a second dedicated port access point in the north zone, bridge connectors, and the expansion of the Manzanillo–Colima highway.

Contecon Manzanillo CEO José Antonio Contreras reported that through July 2026, the Port of Manzanillo recorded growth of nearly 4% in imports and 18% in exports, making it the only major Mexican port achieving growth in both directions, whereas Lázaro Cárdenas import and export volumes fell over 8% despite transshipment growth.

Over 80% of Manzanillo Cargo Volume Originates from China

Contecon Manzanillo CEO José Antonio Contreras reported that over 80% of cargo volume flowing through the Port of Manzanillo originates from China.

The terminal operator noted that potential trade policy changes reducing North American reliance on Asian sourcing would directly impact port throughput.

The automotive and home appliance sectors represent the backbone of containerized cargo for domestic consumption and export, while retail remains closely aligned with Mexican domestic demand.

Houthi Red Sea Advances Prompt Selective Suez Rerouting and Asia-Europe Spot Rate Decline

Following Houthi territorial gains involving Mokha port, Perim Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and the islands of Greater and Lesser Hanish, ocean carriers including Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd restored select services to the Suez Canal route.

The injection of returning Suez capacity alongside post-peak season demand easing pushed Asia-North Europe spot container rates down 3% to approximately $4,300 per FEU and Asia-Mediterranean spot rates down 12% to roughly $4,200 per FEU during the week of September 15, 2026, with daily spot prices on both trade lanes easing to around $3,800 per FEU.

Baltic Dry Index Retreats for Fourth Session to 3,360 Points Driven by Capesize and Panamax Declines

The Baltic Exchange's dry bulk freight index dropped about 2.5% on Tuesday, September 15, 2026, marking its fourth consecutive session of decline to reach 3,360 points, its lowest level since September 2.

The decrease was driven by larger vessel segments: the Capesize index declined 3.8% to 5,687 points, while the Panamax index fell 1.2% to 2,364 points. Conversely, the Supramax index rose 0.6% to 1,736 points.

Meanwhile, commodity ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz fell to fewer than 10 ships per day over the preceding weekend, down from a 10-day average of 14 ships per day.

The New US Tariff Landscape (2026 Back-to-School Edition)

An analysis published by CaixaBank Research examines the evolving US tariff landscape and its impact on North American trade. Following effective US tariff increases that peaked near 11% in late 2025, trade flows reshaped alongside heightened customs scrutiny on transshipment.

Sourcing shifted from China to alternative Asian suppliers such as Vietnam for labor-intensive goods and Taiwan for technology products. Concurrently, Mexico expanded its export market share in the US, supported by an increasing proportion of imports qualifying under USMCA rules of origin, which mitigated broader tariff escalations while serving US demand for electronics.

USMCA Trade Ties Supporting North American Supply Chains Begin to Fray

On September 15, 2026, trade intelligence provider Descartes Datamyne reported on North American cross-border supply chain flows under USMCA. A report by Descartes Datamyne details shifting USMCA trade dynamics and cross-border manufacturing flows between the US and Mexico.

Driven by Taiwanese investments in IT hardware and AI infrastructure, cross-border supply chains rely on Mexican operations established under the IMMEX program, which waives import duties and VAT on raw materials and equipment temporarily imported for export manufacturing. Mexican customs declaration data shows that related-party transfers dominate these cross-border shipments, highlighting the critical role of pedimentos and IMMEX inventory compliance in sustaining North American technology supply chains.

Following the enforcement of US Section 338 tariffs of 50% on Canadian imports on August 21, 2026, regional trade friction escalated. While Section 232 tariffs continue to apply to certain steel and aluminum shipments from Mexico and Canada, USMCA rules of origin have maintained an average effective tariff rate of 3.8% on Canadian and Mexican imports, compared to approximately 30% for non-partner origins.

Descartes Datamyne trade data indicates that Laredo, Texas has emerged as the top US import port by value driven by expanding trade flows with Mexico, prompting surge demand for regional road transport and Texas logistics infrastructure.

Oman Conducts SAR as US and Iran Argue Over Circumstances of Tanker Attack

On Tuesday, September 15, 2026, the Omani Maritime Security Center confirmed a search and rescue operation for the crew of the Panama-flagged, UAE-managed 48,000-dwt product tanker El Gaia off the Omani coast following an attack. Omani authorities evacuated 23 crew members, while two crew members remained missing and the vessel was being towed to an Omani port.

Iran's IRGC claimed on September 14 that the tanker caught fire after striking sea mines in a restricted zone south of the Strait of Hormuz. US Central Command rejected the Iranian claim, stating the stationary vessel was struck by an Iranian drone over the weekend of September 12-13 following a prior Iranian missile strike.

Following the incident, Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi announced the postponement of planned talks between Iran and Gulf states regarding restoring regular tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

Technical Agreement Incorporates Avocado into Labor Certificate for Agroexportation

On September 15, 2026, the Secretariat of Labor and Social Welfare (STPS) published in the Official Gazette of the Federation (DOF) the Technical Agreement by which avocado is incorporated as a product subject to the Labor Certificate for Agroexportation (CLA).

Through this instrument, avocado is established as the first product of the agricultural sector formally incorporated into the mandatory pilot program of the CLA.

Natural and legal persons participating in the production, packing, commercialization and export of avocado must carry out the procedure through the VELAGRO digital platform to accredit compliance with labor obligations and the affiliation of workers to the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS), constituting a regulatory requirement linked to the traceability of the export chain.

Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd Add Four Container Services to Suez Canal Route as Red Sea Transits Increase

Shipping lines Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd announced that four additional joint container services within their Gemini cooperation network—the AE5, AE11, AE12, and ME2 routes connecting Asia, Europe, and the Middle East—will resume transits through the Suez Canal corridor rather than sailing around the Cape of Good Hope.

The decision comes as Sea-Intelligence estimates that over 25% of Asia-Europe container capacity and approximately 35% of Asia-Mediterranean capacity will transit the Red Sea in September 2026.

However, returning Suez capacity alongside post-peak season demand easing contributed to softening spot freight rates, while carriers note that service routings remain contingent on security conditions in the Middle East.

US HDG Exports Down 3.8 Percent in July 2026 from June

According to US Department of Commerce export statistics reported by SteelOrbis on September 15, 2026, US exports of hot dip galvanized sheet and strip (HDG) totaled 106,310 metric tons in July 2026, representing a 3.8% decrease month-on-month and a 0.6% decline year-on-year.

In value terms, HDG exports totaled $160.9 million in July 2026, down from $166.2 million in June 2026 and up from $158.1 million in July 2025.

Mexico received the largest volume of US HDG exports in July 2026 at 69,064 metric tons (compared to 70,996 metric tons in June 2026 and 61,484 metric tons in July 2025), followed by Canada at 36,706 metric tons. No other single destination received 1,000 metric tons or more.

Global VLSFO Bunker Fuel Prices Surge 55% to $845/MT Across Major Hubs Amid Middle East Conflict

Data from global marine fuel publisher Ship & Bunker published on September 15, 2026, shows that the average cost of Very-Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil (VLSFO) across 20 major global fueling hubs surged 55% to $845 per metric ton since the start of the Iran war.

Price levels across major bunkering hubs stood at $1,211/MT in Fujairah (UAE), $770.50/MT in Singapore, $676/MT in Rotterdam (Europe), and $918/MT in Los Angeles (US).

Sea-Intelligence Maritime Analysis estimates the Middle East conflict has added $5.5 billion in global bunker fuel expenses since late February 2026, with container carrier Hapag-Lloyd spending up to $50 million in extra fuel costs each week to keep vessels moving.

Saudi Re to Lead Newly Established Marine War Risk Insurance Pool

On September 15, 2026, Reinsurance News reported that Saudi Arabia's Cabinet approved the establishment of the Saudi Pool for Marine War Risk Insurance, a national marine war-risk insurance pool covering cargo and hull risks.

Saudi Reinsurance Company (Saudi Re) was appointed by the Insurance Authority to lead the pool.

The public-private national initiative aims to enhance Saudi insurance market readiness, support trade flow continuity, reduce reliance on volatile international reinsurance markets, and bolster Saudi Arabia's competitiveness as a global logistics hub following shipping disruptions in the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz.

LNG Bunker Price Rally Lifts LNG-Fuelled Clean Tanker Freight Above Conventional Rates

A rally in LNG bunker prices between September 7 and September 11, 2026, pushed LNG-fuelled clean tanker freight rates above conventional tanker rates across key routes.

On Persian Gulf to Japan routes (such as Jubail to Chiba), LNG-equivalent freight climbed roughly 33% compared to a 25% increase for conventional freight, with Platts LNG Base Rates increasing from $36.66 per metric ton on September 7 to $38.89 per metric ton on September 11, alongside a Worldscale daily assessment jump from w520 to w650.

On the Aliaga-Genoa Mediterranean benchmark route, LNG-equivalent tanker rates rose 15% to $20.85 per metric ton on September 11.

Descartes Datamyne Data Shows Shifts in North American Trade and Supply Chains Under USMCA

On September 15, 2026, Descartes Datamyne released an analysis tracking North American supply chain shifts following trade measures and USMCA rule utilization.

Trade data indicates automated data processing (ADP) machines classified under HS 8471.50 experienced a 102% surge in Canadian import value in the year ending June 2026.

Mexico supplied 41.9% of Canada's ADP machine imports (down from 45.3% the previous year), while U.S. origin shipments grew to 30.2% (up from 25.5%), led by Massachusetts which accounted for 29.4% of U.S. processor exports to Canada compared to 2.6% in the prior period.

US Slab Imports Up 14.4 Percent in July 2026 from June

According to preliminary census data from the US Department of Commerce reported by SteelOrbis on September 15, 2026, US imports of steel slabs in July 2026 reached 581,336 metric tons, up 14.4% month-on-month and 37.1% year-on-year, with a total value of $345.3 million (compared to $307.5 million in June 2026 and $224.8 million in July 2025).

Brazil was the top source of slab imports at 223,892 metric tons, while Mexico ranked second, supplying 96,228 metric tons to the US market in July 2026, ahead of Indonesia (72,814 metric tons) and Canada (62,229 metric tons).

Marine War Risk Insurance Rates Surge Past 1% of Hull Value for Red Sea Transits

On September 15, 2026, Bangladesh Shipping Corporation (BSC) Managing Director Md Ahasan Ul Karim stated that insurance quotations for marine war-risk premiums for vessels transiting the Red Sea have surged to over 1% of total hull and machinery (H&M) value, up from previous baseline rates ranging between 0.125% and 0.75%.

The increase adds hundreds of thousands of dollars in operational costs per seven-day transit.

Fujairah Data: August Bunker Fuel Sales Resume Decline After July Increase

According to Port of Fujairah data published by S&P Global on September 15, 2026, ship fuel sales at the Port of Fujairah on the eastern coast of the UAE fell 2.7% in August 2026 compared to July 2026, totaling 227,950 cubic meters.

On a year-over-year basis, August bunker fuel sales at Fujairah dropped 65%, resuming a downward trend following a temporary rebound in July.

Mexico's Pacific Ports Race to Keep Pace with Container Growth

Mexico's primary Pacific container gateways, including Manzanillo and Lázaro Cárdenas, have recorded double-digit volume growth despite U.S. political pressure on Mexico regarding trade relations and imports from China.

On September 14, 2026, freight intelligence outlet The Loadstar reported that container traffic at Mexico's main Pacific gateways expanded significantly in the first seven months of 2026. In the first seven months of the year, Manzanillo handled 2,455,953 TEUs (+11.7% YoY), with its Contecon terminal moving 1,022,182 TEUs (+20.1% YoY).

Lázaro Cárdenas recorded a 6% increase in container volume to 1.34 million TEUs in 7M 2026, boosting overall throughput by 16% in H1 2026 despite an 8% decline in vehicle imports. APM Terminals Lázaro Cárdenas reported 684,599 TEUs in 1H 2026 (+35% YoY from 508,506 TEUs in 1H 2025).

ASIPONA warned that construction work zones for port expansion projects could turn into choke points for cargo flows during the development process, prompting port users to prepare for potential operational disruptions. This includes an ongoing MX$1.729 billion road infrastructure expansion project that is widening the port's alternative access route from two to four lanes and expanding a bridge.

Contecon received clearance for vessel drafts up to 15.5 metres to handle ultra-large container vessels (ULCVs) up to 23,000 TEUs, making it the only Pacific terminal in Mexico authorized for these ships. In January 2026, Contecon took delivery of six super post-Panamax cranes, with three capable of moving 18 containers across and three for ships up to 22 containers across.

Port operations faced major congestion in late July 2026 after a heavy downpour and power outage disabled customs systems, resulting in a queue of around 5,000 trucks on the port access highway.

Global Container Freight Benchmarks Diverge Across Transpacific and Asia-Europe Routes in Mid-September 2026

Weekly container shipping data reported on September 14, 2026, shows divergent trends across key global trade corridors. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) rose 2% week-on-week to 3,662.18 points (up from 3,590.05 points), and the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) increased 1.4% to 1,862.18 points (up from 1,837.01 points).

In contrast, the Ningbo Containerized Freight Index (NCFI) dropped 0.3% to 2,582.64 points, and the Freightos Baltic Index (FBX) Global Container Freight Index fell 1% to $3,499/FEU (down from $3,520/FEU). Drewry's World Container Index remained unchanged at $4,476/FEU.

Route-specific NYSHEX data highlighted a split: Asia-US West Coast spot rates rose 3.53% to $6,585.56/FEU (from $6,361.11/FEU) and Asia-US East Coast jumped 8.55% to $8,753.37/FEU (from $8,063.84/FEU), whereas Asia-North Europe dropped 3.78% to $3,905.52/FEU (from $4,058.96/FEU).

Transatlantic westbound rates fell 1.27% to $2,314.69/FEU, while eastbound rates rose 4.71% to $1,208.55/FEU. Drewry reported Shanghai-Rotterdam fell 2% to $3,997/FEU and Shanghai-Genoa dropped 3% to $4,216/FEU.

US steel exports down 8.2 percent in July 2026 from June

According to US Department of Commerce export data published by SteelOrbis on September 14, 2026, monthly US steel exports in July 2026 decreased by 8.2% from June and rose 4.6% year-on-year to 591,264 metric tons, with a total value of $1.2 billion.

Mexico was the primary destination for US steel exports in July 2026, receiving 369,742 metric tons (down 12.1% month-on-month, up 8.4% year-on-year), followed by Canada at 181,625 metric tons, China at 4,870 metric tons, Suriname at 3,827 metric tons, and Brazil at 3,063 metric tons.

Major steel product categories exported in July 2026 included hot dip galvanized sheet (HDG) at 106,310 metric tons, cut-length steel plates at 86,507 metric tons, cold rolled sheets at 63,289 metric tons, hot rolled sheets at 45,640 metric tons, and plates in coil at 34,809 metric tons.

China Import Crude Oil Tanker Freight Index (CTFI) Report for September 14, 2026

On September 14, 2026, the Shanghai Shipping Exchange published the China Import Crude Oil Tanker Freight Index (CTFI), with the Comprehensive Index rising by 2,287.4 points to reach 13,691.39 points.

On the Middle East Gulf Ras Tanura to China Ningbo (CT1) 270,000 MT VLCC route, rates climbed 182.76 WS points to WS 1,001.56, reaching $202.42/MT or $1,064,019/day (an increase of $202,208/day).

On the West Africa Malongo and Djeno to China Ningbo (CT2) 260,000 MT VLCC route, rates rose 51.96 WS points to WS 421.63, reaching $167.89/MT or $512,275/day (an increase of $68,623/day).

On the US Gulf STS to China Ningbo (CT4) 270,000 MT VLCC route, rates reached $134.97/MT or $247,553/day (an increase of $5,840/day).

Mexico's exports to South America grow by nearly 18%

Mexico's exports to South America exceeded US$6.7 billion during the first half of 2026, representing an 18 percent year-over-year increase.

Productive integration with North American supply chains connects Mexican automotive, auto parts, electronics, medical devices, advanced manufacturing, and agribusiness operations directly to the United States.

Mexico utilizes a network of 14 free trade agreements covering 52 countries to provide preferential tariff access, expanding opportunities for manufacturers based in Mexico to diversify export markets across Latin America, including Brazil, Colombia, Chile, and Peru.

Pacific Alliance Pushes Toward Full Tariff Removal in 2026

The Technical Group on Trade Facilitation and Customs Cooperation, comprising customs and trade officials from Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru, is overseeing the final tariff elimination phases under the Pacific Alliance Additional Protocol.

While 92% of intra-bloc trade was immediately liberalized upon entry into force, the remaining 8% of sensitive agricultural and manufactured goods were assigned extended phase-out schedules of 3 to 17 years concluding in 2026.

The Additional Protocol explicitly prohibits member countries from raising existing tariffs or introducing new customs duties on originating goods.

US iron and steel scrap exports down 17.4 percent in July 2026 from June

According to US International Trade Commission figures published by SteelOrbis on September 14, 2026, US iron and steel scrap exports totaled 1.07 million metric tons in July 2026, down 17.4% month-on-month and up 7.3% year-on-year, with an export value of $582.1 million (compared to $620.0 million in June 2026 and $441.1 million in July 2025).

Turkey was the largest recipient at 295,598 metric tons, followed by Mexico as the second-largest destination at 183,784 metric tons, Taiwan at 87,064 metric tons, and Bangladesh at 83,516 metric tons.

Panama Canal Authority Announces Plan to Reduce Daily Vessel Transits to 29.5 Starting October 2026

On September 14, 2026, Panama Canal Administrator Ricaurte Vásquez announced that under a draft budget submitted to Panama's Parliament, the Panama Canal Authority plans to further reduce daily ship transits through the waterway to an average of 29.5 per day beginning in October 2026 due to worsening El Niño-induced drought conditions.

The waterway had previously reduced daily transits from 36 to 32 on September 4, 2026, to conserve freshwater in Lake Gatun.

Expert Outlook

Core judgment
Mexico has locked in structural enforcement tightening against China-origin FCL cargo: definitive anti-dumping duties now exceed provisional rates on aluminum hollow profiles (US$1.93/kg) and profiles (US$1.58/kg), while children's bike duties jumped nearly fourfold to US$57.19 per unit, and 46% of active UPCI measures target Chinese goods. Non-tariff fines have escalated to 250-300% of goods value alongside a surge in IMMEX and Importers' Registry suspensions, coinciding with carrier capacity rationing that has pushed China-Mexico rates to USD 7,000-8,100/FEU. Accelerated USMCA talks on Section 232 and AI hardware origin rules add near-term policy uncertainty that will keep landed costs and clearance predictability under dual pressure.

Drivers decoded
Mexico Customs, SAT, ANAM and UPCI are maximizing tax and countervailing-duty revenue, with the 2027 budget projecting a 50.4% real increase in import-penalty income. Their leverage rests on the elevated 250-300% fines that no longer distinguish error from simulation, the concentration of nine-tenths of all Importers' Registry suspensions since 2021 into 2025-26, AD finalizations above provisional rates, and SAT-ANAM information exchange under the Master Audit Plan. Enforcement has become permanently stricter after the January 2026 Customs Law reforms, and the political cycle supports China-targeted measures that already comprise 46% of active duties.

The Mexican government, Economy Secretariat and private-sector bodies (CCE/COMCE) seek interim relief from Section 232 tariffs of 25% on autos and 50% on steel and aluminum while protecting the North American free-trade framework before U.S. midterms. They leverage successive T-MEC review rounds, resistance to mandatory U.S.-content ratios on AI hardware, and earlier concessions on China tariffs and transshipment curbs. Talks have been accelerated to the week of 21 September to reduce investor uncertainty amid economic cooling, balancing U.S. pressure against the viability of industrial plants whose IVA/IEPS-certified firms account for 97% of temporary-import value.

The U.S. government (USTR/Commerce) aims to restructure supply chains away from Chinese inputs through origin rules and to maintain tariff leverage. Section 232 tariffs, demands for higher North American content on AI servers beyond the 75% auto RVC, and the midterm political calendar supply the tools. Tariffs function as negotiation chips to push Mexico to block Chinese circumvention at a moment when AI hardware has become Mexico's top U.S. export at USD 82.9 billion in the first half.

Pacific port operators (Contecon Manzanillo and ASIPONA) seek to capture volume growth from historically China-linked cargo that exceeds 80% at Manzanillo while expanding capacity. Their instruments include 24/7 customs windows, Phase 4 terminal expansion of more than 40%, ULCV draft clearance to 15.5 m and new super post-Panamax cranes. They are racing to keep pace with double-digit TEU growth despite construction choke risks and earlier weather and power disruptions.

Chain effects
Definitive anti-dumping rates finalized above provisional levels on China hollow profiles at US$1.93/kg, aluminum profiles at US$1.58/kg and children's bikes at US$57.19/unit produce an immediate duty cost uplift for HS 7604 and 8712.00.05 FCL shipments. The 2027 budget locks in a 50.4% real rise in countervailing-duty revenue while cutting UPCI operating funds 41.1%, sustaining China-focused enforcement that already accounts for 46% of active measures and raises baseline compliance costs for metals and manufactures importers.

Carriers' capacity rationing and higher-yield prioritization have driven China-Mexico FEU rates to USD 7,000-8,100, directly elevating the ocean-freight component of landed cost for Mexican FCL importers and compressing booking flexibility into the peak season through tighter equipment and slot availability.

The nationwide SAT-customs connectivity outage halted digital validation and DODA generation, forcing manual operations and producing 14 km queues at Nuevo Laredo. Extended delivery times, higher storage costs and cross-border congestion followed, generating million-peso losses that compound existing IMMEX inventory-control fine exposure.

Manzanillo's 24/7 customs windows on Thursdays and Fridays, amid more than 70% import-volume growth since 2021, enabled a single-day evacuation record above 2,000 containers while Contecon Phase 4 advances toward a more than 40% capacity increase, delivering short-term relief of external bottlenecks. ASIPONA construction zones and prior weather/power outages remain latent choke points that can reverse those continuity gains.

Mexico Customs and SAT/ANAM/UPCI emerge as clear beneficiaries: customs-infractions collection rose 131% year-on-year to MXN 2,986 million in the first half of 2026, already exceeding the full-year 2025 total, while the 2027 budget projects a further 50.4% real increase in countervailing-duty revenue. Pacific port operators also benefit, with Manzanillo handling 2.46 million TEU (+11.7%) and Contecon posting +20.1% growth in the first seven months, capturing China-origin volume share through expanded operating windows and terminal capacity.

Scenarios and signposts
Key unknowns that remain to be observed include the outcome and any published text of the 21 September U.S.-Mexico fourth-round talks on Section 232 interim relief and AI hardware origin rules; SAT connectivity status and queue lengths at Nuevo Laredo and Manzanillo over the next 7-14 days; further UPCI or Economy Secretariat notices on AD/CVD rate adjustments or new China-targeted investigations; Manzanillo/Contecon Phase 4 progress versus ASIPONA-warned construction choke points and any recurrence of weather- or power-related truck queues; weekly China-Mexico FEU spot quotations and carrier blank-sailing or rationing announcements through early October; and IMMEX temporary-suspension plus IVA/IEPS certification-cancellation counts in SAT Master Audit Plan updates through the September-November window.

In the baseline scenario, which is highly likely, definitive AD duties and the 250-300% fine schedule remain in force, China-Mexico rates stay inside the USD 7,000-8,100/FEU range under continued rationing, the 21 September talks produce only limited interim 232 language without broad relief, SAT outages recur intermittently and IMMEX suspensions continue. Landed costs and clearance times for China-origin FCL therefore stay elevated, accompanied by a heightened compliance-documentation burden. The trigger is the absence of any material reversal of finalized AD rates or the Customs Law fine schedule, persistence of capacity rationing, and conclusion of the fourth-round talks without major 232 rollback.

In the optimistic scenario, which may materialize, an interim 232 understanding eases steel, aluminum and auto tariffs while capacity rationing softens into October, allowing a modest rate pullback; Manzanillo 24/7 operations and Phase 4 progress reduce dwell and SAT connectivity stabilizes. Partial relief appears on both ocean-freight and duty components, improving predictability for large FCL importers. The trigger is a successful pre-midterm interim deal on Section 232 plus visible easing of carrier rationing and sustained SAT uptime.

In the pessimistic scenario, which may also materialize, talks stall or new China-targeted measures appear, SAT outages lengthen and Pacific construction zones create fresh chokepoints, while rates push higher on continued rationing. Compounded duty, fine and freight cost spikes combine with multi-day clearance delays that disrupt IMMEX inventory cycles. The trigger is breakdown or delay past the midterms in U.S.-Mexico talks combined with renewed nationwide SAT failure or ASIPONA-warned expansion congestion.