North American Trade Policy
China Expands Precursor Chemical Export Controls for North America
On 22 September 2026, China's Ministry of Commerce, Ministry of Public Security, Ministry of Emergency Management, General Administration of Customs and National Medical Products Administration jointly released Ministry of Commerce Announcement 2026 No. 40, adjusting the Catalog for the Management of Precursor Chemicals Exported to Specific Countries (Regions).
The announcement adds 1-phenylethyl-4-oxo-3-piperidinecarboxylic acid methyl ester and 1-phenylethyl-4-oxo-3-piperidinecarboxylic acid ethyl ester to Annex 1 Part 1.
Under the Interim Provisions on the Administration of Precursor Chemicals Exported to Specific Countries (Regions), from the announcement date of 22 September 2026, exports to the United States, Mexico and Canada of chemicals listed in Annex 1 Part 1, and exports to Myanmar, Laos and Afghanistan of chemicals listed in Annex 1 Part 2, require export permits. Exports to other countries or regions do not require a permit application.
China's Ministry of Commerce announced new export permit requirements for these two additional chemical precursors (piperidone derivatives) when shipped to Mexico, the United States and Canada, bringing the total number of regulated chemicals under the North America permit regime to 18.
The order was issued jointly by five Chinese agencies covering licensing, policing, emergency management, customs inspections and pharmaceutical regulation, requiring exporters to secure permits prior to shipment.
The measure expands China's North American permit regime to 18 regulated precursor chemicals and introduces added compliance requirements for chemical and pharmaceutical importers in Mexico amid broader Mexico-China tariff tensions.
As of 22 September 2026, the expanded export permit requirements for the two additional precursor chemicals to the United States, Mexico and Canada have taken effect, bringing the total under the North America regime to 18.
Mexico Advances Customs Law Reform Against Undervaluation
On 22 September 2026, Héctor Alonso Romero Gutiérrez, head of Mexico's National Customs Agency (ANAM), participated in a working meeting with the Finance and Public Credit Commission of the Chamber of Deputies to present an initiative to reform the Customs Law aimed at combating undervaluation of goods in foreign trade operations and complying with Articles 72 and 73 of the Customs Law.
In Press Release 85/2026, ANAM detailed the implementation of the Value Intelligence System, a technological tool that automates detection of operations at risk of undervaluation and determines their review according to the importer's background, the customs broker, the sector involved and the magnitude of value differences, in coordination with the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Economy and the SAT.
The proposal seeks to modify conditions relating to precautionary embargo derived from differences in the valuation of goods by eliminating the 50 percent threshold and introducing a lower parameter of 20 percent to determine when said embargo may be replaced by a guarantee or cash deposit.
During the same meeting, the Executive Branch presented data showing 2,541 import transactions between 2025 and August 2026 totaling 1.5867 billion pesos in declared commercial value that evaded seizure because they fell below the existing 50 percent undervaluation threshold. In 2025, 44,232 definitive import transactions utilized customs guarantee accounts based on estimated prices, concentrated in footwear, textiles and apparel.
Industry representatives, including Samuel Ortiz of UNAM, Juan Manuel Curi Ramírez and Alejandro Acalco of the garment sector, and Georgina Estrada of Concamin, supported anti-undervaluation efforts while requesting industry involvement in setting sector-specific valuation criteria and opposing automatic precautionary seizures.
ANAM also noted that the Mexican customs system processes on average 1.9 million operations per month, divided into 50 percent exports and 50 percent imports, distributed across 50 customs offices, of which a reduced group concentrates 96 percent of the country's total activity.
On 23 September 2026, the proposal establishes different treatments for substituting precautionary seizures of goods not subject to estimated prices: for declared value differences under 20 percent, importers may present a cash deposit or a customs guarantee account; for differences of 20 percent or more, a cash deposit is strictly required. The reform also lowers the threshold in Article 177(XII) of the Customs Law from 50 percent to 20 percent for specific customs regimes allowing duty determination without immediate payment.
Industry representatives presented feedback: Norma Angélica Solís Rosas of Intrade Smart and Georgina Noricumbo Aguilar of Solución Integral al Comercio Exterior emphasized that importers and customs brokers lack access to third-party data required to anticipate SAT price comparisons, warning that resource immobilization will disproportionately burden smaller companies. Jessica Morales of Concanaco Servytur urged authorities to provide technical justification before seizing cargo, grant a right of hearing, and distinguish administrative errors from fraud. Luis Alberto Gaitán Morales requested considering certified company compliance histories, Arturo Pérez Behr proposed specific valuation criteria for used goods based on wear and functionality, and José Aguilar Méndez of DHL Express Mexico recommended leveraging data already shared by carriers, forwarders and customs brokers rather than imposing automatic seizures.
Industrial representatives, customs agents and academics warned that generalized application of this measure instead of a risk-based approach will cause extra costs, delays in supply chains and saturation in customs. Virgilio Antonio Vallejo of the Latin American Confederation of Customs Brokers stated that removing undervaluation thresholds and requiring cash deposits for tax differences would congest customs facilities, overwhelm inspection bodies, strain importer liquidity and increase final costs for raw materials and finished goods. Antonio De la Rosa, deputy director of a customs brokerage firm, warned that increased precautionary seizures would create severe operational bottlenecks across Mexican entry ports, specifically highlighting that the Port of Manzanillo is already incapable of handling current cargo volumes.
On 27 September 2026, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum submitted proposed amendments to Mexico's Customs Law (Ley Aduanera) to the Chamber of Deputies as part of the government's economic package for 2027. The legislation targets import undervaluation by eliminating the 50 percent threshold currently required for precautionary seizures, enabling authorities to challenge declared import values below transaction baselines by any amount.
The proposal would expand customs authorities' powers to initiate verification procedures, increase documentary requirements and inspections across land-border gateways and ports, and remove exceptions for importers providing Article 86-A guarantee accounts.
Trade law firm Sandler, Travis & Rosenberg stated that the proposal will require importers to provide substantially stronger documentation supporting declared transaction values, specifically for related-party transactions, assists, royalties and transfer-pricing adjustments. Gilda Varela, director of customs and foreign trade for the Mexican Automotive Industry Association (AMIA), warned that eliminating the 50 percent undervaluation threshold could disrupt just-in-time manufacturing if components are seized during valuation disputes, causing assembly line halts and delays in vehicle deliveries to authorized distributors. Bonded warehouse representatives also warned that expanded precautionary seizures will lead to cargo holds, border delays, customs facility congestion, elevated storage costs and severe warehouse space shortages.
As of 27 September 2026, the proposed amendments to Mexico's Customs Law remain under review by the Finance and Public Credit Committee of the Chamber of Deputies after referral on 9 September.
USMCA Fourth-Round In-Person Talks Postponed to October
On 23 September 2026, Mexico's Undersecretary of Foreign Trade, Luis Rosendo Gutiérrez Romano, announced during the Fifth Binational Convention 2026 of the American Society (Amsoc) that the in-person meetings of the fourth round of bilateral T-MEC negotiations between Mexico and the United States were postponed from September to October 2026.
The postponement was agreed upon due to the international agenda of the United States, which includes the visit of China's head of state to the United States and the G20 Ministerial Trade Summit scheduled from 30 September to 1 October in Milwaukee.
In parallel, the trade teams of both countries maintain daily conversations negotiating reductions in United States tariffs on Mexican steel, aluminum and automotive products applied under Section 232. Mexican priorities for the talks include reducing Section 232 tariffs on steel from 50 percent to 25 percent and on automobiles from 25 percent to 15 percent, while the U.S. side requested Mexico to heighten cybersecurity standards, particularly regarding investments and trade originating from Asia and China.
The postponement leaves negotiations on USMCA rules of origin, cybersecurity and sectoral tariff cuts in limbo. The negotiation agenda has expanded from 54 to nearly 90 items, with key priorities including securing an interim agreement to reduce U.S. Section 232 tariffs on Mexican steel, aluminum and automotive products, while addressing U.S. content requirements and digital platform regulations.
On 24 September 2026, at the 5th Mexico-United States Binational Convention of the American Society of Mexico in Mexico City, Luis Rosendo Gutiérrez stated that Mexico has formally proposed that the U.S. reduce Section 232 tariffs on Mexican automotive exports to under 15 percent, noting that competing auto-exporting regions such as Japan, South Korea and the European Union pay a 15 percent tariff to the U.S., whereas Mexican auto exports face a 25 percent Section 232 duty if they fail to meet USMCA origin rules.
The fourth round of bilateral trade negotiations between Mexico and the United States has been postponed to October 2026, with daily technical coordination continuing on tariff reductions and other items.
Manzanillo Port Logistics
Manzanillo CRT Pilot Faces Conflicting Directives
On September 25, 2026, Data Portuaria and T21 reported that a trial prepared by the National Port System Administration (Asipona) Manzanillo and trucking organizations to regulate container trucks bound for Contecon Manzanillo via the Land Regulation Center (CRT) resulted in conflicting operational directives.
On September 23, the Manzanillo Port Community (Copoma) issued an instruction requiring trucks to route through the CRT prior to attending certain appointments at Contecon starting September 24.
Terminal operator Contecon publicly instructed transport operators to maintain their standard entry procedure, creating schedule uncertainty for freight carriers.
The test originated from a meeting minute on September 3 between Copoma, Asipona Manzanillo and transport chambers such as Canacar, Conatram, UTCM and UETLM.
A follow-up meeting between port authorities, trucking chambers and stakeholders was scheduled for Monday, September 28, 2026.
The Administración del Sistema Portuario Nacional (ASIPONA) Manzanillo will implement, starting from September 30, 2026, a pilot program for the use of the Terrestrial Regulatory Center (CRT) on Wednesdays, Thursdays and Fridays of each week.
The measure is destined for self-transport units with import appointments from 16:00 hours directed to the CONTECON Manzanillo Terminal.
The operational scheme establishes that the units may enter the CRT up to two hours before the scheduled time in their Electronic Appointment Document (DEC); once inside the CRT, personnel from the Land Traffic Control Center will carry out validation via PIS Check of the DEC.
Subsequently, the units will be accompanied by personnel from the Land Traffic Control Center from the CRT to the Second Access of the port precinct with one hour of anticipation to their appointments, or according to what circulation conditions and the prevailing operation permit.
The Rules of Use of the Terrestrial Regulatory Center are of mandatory observance for the users that enter said facilities.
Cosco Launches Yangtze-Manzanillo Direct Container Service
On September 23, 2026, Cosco Shipping Specialised Carriers launched a direct ocean container shipping service connecting Jiangyin, a river port along China's Yangtze River, to the Port of Manzanillo in Mexico.
The maiden voyage deployed the multi-purpose general cargo vessel CSPC Jade carrying more than 500 containers of machinery and finished goods, including a reported load of 524 specialized containers.
The direct route requires 22 days of transit, cutting approximately 15 days compared to traditional transshipment routes via Shanghai or Ningbo.
The service saves additional barging fees, port handling charges and short-haul transport costs for Yangtze River Delta hinterland manufacturers, including home appliances, electronics, automotive parts and photovoltaics.
A portion of the imported cargo arriving at Manzanillo is designated for onward inland transport via rail or truck into the United States, providing an alternative route to mitigate Panama Canal transit bottlenecks.
Most of the specialized containers feature a lowered-profile design to meet height limits in Mexican railway tunnels and under bridges, enabling direct transfer between railway flatcars and truck chassis for end-to-end intermodal road and rail transport into Mexico and North America upon arrival.
The departure from Jiangyin Port in Jiangsu Province marked the formal start of the new direct container shipping service between Jiangsu and Mexico.
More News
DOF Publishes Extension until 2030 of the General Import Tax Decree for the Northern Border Region
On September 25, 2026, the Federal Executive published in the evening edition of the Official Gazette of the Federation (DOF) the Decree modifying the decree that establishes the general import tax for the border region and the northern border strip. The decree was signed on September 24, 2026 and entered into force on September 26, 2026.
The modification reforms the First Transitory Article to extend the validity of the preferential border tariff regime until December 31, 2030. The regime originally expired on September 30, 2026.
The scheme covers 1,349 HS Codes, of which 1,147 maintain an ad valorem rate of 0%, 193 apply a rate of 5%, two are subject to de-tariffing through annual quota and seven to de-tariffing for used vehicles.
The Second Transitory Article decrees the automatic renewal of valid Records as Border Company issued by the Ministry of Economy, omitting the need for additional procedures before the authority.
Geographic coverage includes the entirety of Baja California, Baja California Sur and Quintana Roo, partial zones of Sonora, the southern border strip with Guatemala, specific municipalities of Sonora, Chiapas, Oaxaca and Tabasco, and the northern border strip of 20 kilometers parallel to the border with the United States.
Special Bulletin: Non-Tariff Regulations — Prior Permit for Sugar
On September 24, 2026, Radar Customs & Logistics issued a special bulletin on the entry into force, starting September 28, 2026, of new non-tariff regulations for sugar, mixtures and food preparations under Article 56 of the Customs Law.
Goods entering national territory must mandatorily have a Prior Import Permit or Report of Attestation of non-application. Without such documentation they cannot be dispatched at customs.
The Confederation of Associations of Customs Brokers of the Mexican Republic (CLAA) confirmed after a meeting with the National Metrology Center (CENAM) and the Ministry of Economy that there will be no extension.
CENAM updated the Guide for Requesting High Reliability Analysis Services and Attestation of Sugar-Based Products, setting a validity of 12 months for the High Reliability Analysis Report and 4 months for the Attestation Report, and allowing reuse of the analysis report up to 3 times within its validity.
Special technical attention and greater analysis at customs will be maintained on HS Code 2106.90.99.
Second Resolution of Modifications to the General Rules of Foreign Trade for 2026 and Annexes 1, 2 and 22
On September 22, 2026, the Secretaría de Hacienda y Crédito Público (SHCP) and the Servicio de Administración Tributaria (SAT) published in the Diario Oficial de la Federación (DOF) the Second Resolution of Modifications to the General Rules of Foreign Trade for 2026 and annexes 1, 2 and 22. The resolution enters into general force on September 23, 2026.
The resolution updates the definition of Digital Window to the Single Window for Foreign Trade Procedures (VUTCE).
Under Rule 1.4.12 and procedure sheet 20/LA of Annex 2, the procedure is modified so that customs brokers and importers can request to lift the suspension to operate in the Electronic Customs System (SEA) caused by the inaccurate declaration of the NICO through the rectification of the pedimento or guarantee, with the authority having 5 days to resolve.
Rule 1.4.14 requires customs brokers and agencies to integrate an electronic file of users who request foreign trade operations from them. The file must contain a statement under oath indicating that they verified that the user is not published in the lists of articles 49 Bis fraction X, 69, 69-B or 69-B Bis of the Fiscal Code of the Federation (CFF) (per one report) or articles 69, 69-B and 69-B Bis (per other reports). The file must be updated every three years or when the user modifies their information.
Rule 3.1.2 adds a paragraph to allow the import of up to two kilograms of each merchandise classified in the HS Codes and NICO of numeral 8 TER of Annex 2.2.1 for obtaining the Attestation Report or Compliance Report. A sixth paragraph authorizes the import of up to 2 kilograms of merchandise per HS Code and NICO indicated in numeral 8 TER of Annex 2.2.1 of the Secretaría de Economía intended to obtain attestation or compliance reports.
The Eleventh Transitory extends until September 30, 2026 the physical scheme for compliance with the Manifestation of Value. Until December 31, 2026 it will not be necessary to transmit again the documentation of article 81 fractions II, III and IV of the Customs Law Regulations provided that it is transmitted in accordance with article 36-A of the Customs Law. Until the same date it is allowed to transmit the E15 format only with general data of the contract. The coexistence of the physical format of the Value Manifest is extended until September 30, 2026, establishing the mandatory use of the Electronic Value Manifest (MVE) as of October 1, 2026.
Carrier registration (Form 114/LA) is expanded to include the application for registration of companies transporting goods in transit destined for the Recinto Fiscalizado Estratégico (RFE) regime.
Additionally, the First Modification to Annex 1, the First Modification to Annex 2 and the Second Modification to Annex 22 of the RGCE for 2026 were made official.
Transpacific Route: Peak Season Extends Longer than Expected and Keeps Spot Rates High
On September 25, 2026, MundoMaritimo reported the analysis by specialist Jon Monroe on the Transpacific container shipping route. The peak freight season will extend until the third or fourth week of October 2026, maintaining high spot rates.
Despite the incorporation of 1.7 million TEUs of capacity to the global fleet in 2026, more than half destined for the Transpacific, effective capacity remains tight due to diversions via the Red Sea, Strait of Hormuz and Panama Canal, added to four consecutive typhoons in Asia.
Monroe cited Sea-Intelligence data placing global schedule reliability at 54%, with drops in Shanghai (20%) and Ningbo (34.6%), and vessel delays at Asian terminals of 8 to 12 days.
The general rate increases (GRI) applied in mid-September have been sustained. The industry anticipates a new rate increase attempt for October 1, 2026, contrasting with mid-September 2025 when rates fell to US$1,400 toward the US West Coast and US$2,200 toward the US East Coast.
Guiding Criterion on Fine for Not Presenting Goods within the Granted Period for Arrival in Internal Transit
The National Customs Agency of Mexico (ANAM) issued a guiding criterion regarding the fine applicable for not presenting the goods within the period granted for their arrival at the dispatch or exit customs office, in the case of the internal transit regime.
The criterion specifies that said fine may be applicable to the persons indicated in article 129 of the Customs Law, including the transport company, even when it is not obliged to have the registration of transporters to carry out the transit of goods.
The above is independent of the responsibilities related to the payment of contributions, countervailing duties, accessories and other infractions that could arise during the transfer of the goods.
Box Shipping Reliability the Worst since 2022 — 'a New Normal', Says DP World
On September 25, 2026, The Loadstar reported data from Sea-Intelligence's Global Liner Performance report showing that global container shipping schedule reliability fell by 5.9 percentage points month-on-month in August 2026 to 49.9%.
The figure marks the second consecutive monthly decline and reaches its lowest level in four years due to severe port congestion in Asia.
Mexico Still Holds Ammunition to Raise Tariffs on Asian Imports
On September 22, 2026, Expansión reported that Mexico retains margin within the limits agreed before the World Trade Organization (WTO) to raise tariffs on imports from countries without a trade agreement, primarily China, amid pressure from the United States to curb the entry of Asian inputs before the T-MEC review.
In 2026, Mexico applies an average Most Favored Nation (MFN) tariff of 11.1%, compared to the 8.5% recorded in 2025, maintaining an average bound ceiling of 36.2% before the WTO.
During 2026, the Mexican government increased the rates of 1,463 tariff fractions covering automobiles, auto parts, clothing, textiles, steel, footwear, household appliances, plastics, toys and furniture.
The highest MFN averages in 2026 are concentrated in clothing and apparel (29.2%), sugars and confectionery (26.7%), and beverages and tobacco (25.9%).
The gap between 11.1% and 36.2% grants a regulatory cushion usable in the face of the reorganization of productive chains and the pressures from the United States to restrict the entry of Chinese inputs, components and investments within the framework of the T-MEC review.
Port of Manzanillo Reopens to All Types of Vessels after Weather Conditions Improve
The Regional Port Captaincy of Manzanillo reopened the Port of Manzanillo to navigation for major and minor vessels starting at 08:00 hours on Friday, September 25, 2026, after an improvement in local weather conditions following the passage of Hurricane Polo.
According to official letter 5140/2026 issued by the Secretaría de Marina, the measure applies to major and minor vessels of 500 UAB in ocean, cabotage and inland navigation, with winds between 2 and 3 knots and waves of 1.8 meters (6 feet) recorded at the time of reopening.
Senate Commission Requests Evaluation of the Continuity of Tariff and Fiscal Decrees in the Northern Border
On September 26, 2026, the Commission on Northern Border Affairs of the Mexican Senate, presided over by Senator Juan Carlos Loera de la Rosa, approved a dictum to urge the Ministry of Economy and the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) to timely evaluate the continuity, modification or update of two key instruments for regional foreign trade.
The dictum contemplates the Decree by which the General Import Tax is established for the Border Region and the Northern Border Strip, whose validity concludes on September 30, 2026, as well as the Decree of fiscal stimuli northern border region, in force until December 31, 2026.
The legislators pointed out the need to timely define the tariff and fiscal conditions to grant legal certainty to economic agents in the framework of commercial integration with North America.
Port of Altamira Presents Master Development Program towards 2031
The National Port System Administration Altamira presented the Port Master Development Program (PMDP) 2026-2031, published in the Official Gazette of the Federation.
The program establishes the strategic planning to expand port infrastructure and services, with objectives centered on modernizing maritime and land transport infrastructure, expanding the rail network for intermodal freight and passenger connectivity, and strengthening the commercial and industrial competitiveness of the port precinct.
Contecon Boosts Manzanillo Terminal with Five New RTG Cranes
On September 23, 2026, Port Technology reported that terminal operator Contecon received five new rubber-tyred gantry (RTG) cranes at its facility in the Port of Manzanillo, Mexico, after arriving aboard the Lan Hai Hong Yun from Busan, South Korea.
Contecon Manzanillo incorporated the five new RTG cranes to enhance operational throughput and container handling efficiency. Contecon handled 164,297 TEUs at Manzanillo in August 2026, ranking first in monthly container volume among the port's terminals.
The equipment addition forms part of Contecon's ongoing infrastructure expansion program supported by ASIPONA Manzanillo to increase terminal throughput and operational efficiency at Mexico's primary Pacific container gateway. Supported by the Manzanillo National Port System Administration (ASIPONA), the deployment aims to optimize customs and administrative operations at Mexico's main Pacific container hub.
Hurricane Polo Disrupts Mexican Pacific Ports with High Winds and Heavy Rain
Hurricane Polo caused maritime disruptions along Mexico's Pacific coast, prompting the Mexican Navy and Port Captaincy to impose navigation restrictions across multiple Pacific ports.
The Port of Manzanillo closed to vessels under 500 gross tonnage starting September 22 at 9 a.m. due to intensifying winds, heavy rainfall, and elevated waves, while remaining open to large commercial container ships.
Other Pacific ports, including Acapulco, Zihuatanejo, Lazaro Cardenas, and Puerto Escondido, experienced full or partial vessel closures as the Category 4 storm moved off the southwestern coast.
Port Attention Times in Mexico Jump 80% in July After May-June Recovery
On September 22, 2026, DataPortuaria reported that the Indicator of Average Road Transport Times in Ports (ITOB) for July 2026 registered an average attention time of 11 hours, 50 minutes, and 23 seconds across 2,327 analyzed road transport movements at Mexico's four primary container ports: Manzanillo, Lázaro Cárdenas, Veracruz, and Altamira.
This represents an 80.4% increase (5 hours, 16 minutes, and 40 seconds longer) compared to the 6 hours, 33 minutes, and 43 seconds recorded in June. Customs processes accounted for 48.6% of the total time (increasing from 3:13:12 in June to 5:44:56 in July), waiting time represented 29.7% (3:31:13), and maneuvers represented 21.7% (2:34:14).
Logistics delays generate an estimated daily cost of 44.4 million Mexican pesos across the supply chain. Port-specific attention times were: Lázaro Cárdenas at 11:58:58 (up 3:30:33 from June); Veracruz at 7:13:01 (up 57:35 from June), leading the ranking with the smallest variation; followed by Altamira, Lázaro Cárdenas, and Manzanillo.
AISI Urges US Action on Chinese Excess Steel Capacity and Proposed Tariffs in North America
On September 22, 2026, Kevin Dempsey, President and CEO of the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI), sent a letter to US President Donald Trump urging him to address China's excess steel production capacity and industrial subsidies during his summit with China's head of state.
AISI cited OECD projections indicating global excess steel capacity could reach 745 million tonnes by 2028, noting that Chinese steel exports reached 131 million tonnes in 2025.
Additionally, the report noted that US authorities proposed to the Mexican government the implementation of import duties on steel and aluminum originating from countries outside North America, following the framework of US Section 232 tariffs.
Trans-Pacific Rates Soar as Mediterranean Rates Sink, Demand Explains Neither
The Freightos Baltic Daily Index for China to North America West Coast (FBXD.CNAW) closed at $8,446 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU) on September 23, 2026, nearly double its 12-month average of $4,381 per FEU and about four times higher than rates in September 2025.
In contrast, the China-to-Mediterranean index (FBXD.CMED) dropped to $3,591 per FEU, down over 50% from its July peak of $7,540 per FEU.
Mexico Extends Antidumping Duties on Hot-Rolled Steel Imports from Russia and Ukraine
On September 26, 2026, Mexico's Ministry of Economy announced the final results of its sunset review on the antidumping duties imposed on imports of hot rolled steel originating from Russia and Ukraine, extending the measures for another five years after concluding that removing them would likely lead to the repetition of dumping and injury to the domestic industry.
The products subject to the measure are hot rolled steel, unalloyed and alloyed with a boron content of 0.0008 percent or higher, with a width of 600 mm or more and a thickness of less than 4.75 mm, classified under HS Code 7208.10.03, 7208.26.01, 7208.27.01, 7208.38.01, 7208.39.01, 7225.30.91 and 7225.40.91.
Mexico Extends for Five Years Duties on Steel Pipe from the United States
On September 25, 2026, Mexico's Ministry of Economy resolved to maintain for another five years the countervailing duties (antidumping) on imports of carbon steel pipe with straight longitudinal seam originating from the United States. The resolution concluded that eliminating the compensatory measures would favor the repetition of dumping practices and could generate damage to the national industry.
This product is mainly used in the conduction of oil, gas and water, as well as in oil works, gas pipelines, petrochemical plants and hydraulic infrastructure. The resolution maintains an antidumping quota of 6.77% for imports from Berg Steel Pipe Corporation and 25.43% for Oregon Steel Mills and other US exporters, originally in force since May 2005 and extended in 2011, 2016 and 2021.
The sunset review initiated in May 2025 evaluated the market behavior period between March 2020 and February 2025, concluding that the US industry operates at installed capacity utilization levels below 40%, which would incentivize the diversion of excess volumes to Mexico.
Baltic Exchange Shipping Insights
On September 25, 2026, Baltic Exchange market assessments for clean tanker routes showed that the LR2 TC1 75kt MEG/Japan index increased 41.67 points week-on-week to WS875.56, with Baltic round-trip TCE rising from $237,000/day to $252,100/day.
The TC20 90kt MEG/UK-Continent index increased by $662,500 to $17.27 million, and the TC15 80kt Mediterranean/East index increased by $336,000 to $7.73 million (TCE from $53,400/day to $59,600/day).
For LR1 tankers, the TC5 55kt MEG/Japan index gained 40.31 points to WS890 (TCE from $171,700/day to $182,300/day), while the TC8 65kt MEG/UK-Continent index increased by $829,000 to $12.03 million. On MR tankers, the TC17 35kt MEG/East Africa index increased 99.29 points to WS847.86 (TCE from $91,700/day to $107,500/day).
Lego Announces $400 Million Expansion of Monterrey Supply Chain and Warehouse Facilities
On September 25, 2026, Supply Chain Dive reported that The Lego Group announced an investment exceeding $400 million to expand its manufacturing and regional distribution center in Monterrey, Mexico.
The expansion will add more than 667,000 square feet of operational space, featuring a new packing hall and a fully automated high-bay warehouse capable of storing inventory stacks from 40 to over 150 feet high.
Construction is scheduled to start in early 2027 with completion targeted for 2029, creating 1,300 new jobs in addition to the site's existing 7,300 workers to support regional supply chain operations for the Americas market.
Global DRI Production Falls 8.8% Year-on-Year in August 2026 with Mexico Output at 500,000 mt
On September 25, 2026, SteelOrbis reported World Steel Association (worldsteel) data indicating global direct reduced iron (DRI) production across 12 key reporting countries reached 9.85 million metric tons in August 2026, representing a 0.6% decline month-on-month and an 8.8% decrease year-on-year.
Total world DRI output for the first eight months of 2026 reached 81.38 million metric tons, down 3.4% compared to the same period in 2025.
In August 2026, India led global production with 5.11 million mt, followed by Iran with 2.5 million mt, Egypt with 613,000 mt, while Russia and Mexico recorded output of 500,000 mt each.
Congestion and Costlier Bunkers Keep Intra-Asia Rates High
On September 25, 2026, The Loadstar reported that Drewry's Intra-Asia Container Index rose for a fourth consecutive week, reaching $1,402 per 40ft container on September 17, 2026 (up 6% from September 10), supported by typhoon-related disruptions, pre-Golden Week demand, and higher bunker fuel costs.
Baltic Exchange data cited in the report showed very-low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) prices in Singapore and Zhoushan rose by around $30 month-on-month to approximately $850 per tonne, while high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) prices increased by about $50 to roughly $660 per tonne.
Mexico Maintains Antidumping Duties on Hot-Rolled Sheet from Russia and Ukraine
On September 25, 2026, Mexico's Ministry of Economy resolved to maintain until 2030 the countervailing duties (antidumping) applied to imports of hot rolled sheet originating from Russia and Ukraine.
The decision considers a duty of 21% on imports originating from Russia and 25% on those from Ukraine, after a sunset review requested by local producers Ternium and ArcelorMittal.
The input is used as raw material in the construction, white goods and automotive industries.
Contecon Incorporates Five RTG Cranes at Its Manzanillo Terminal
Contecon Manzanillo, terminal of the Filipino group ICTSI at the port of Manzanillo, received five new rubber-tired gantry cranes (RTG) on board the vessel Lan Hai Hong Yun, coming from the port of Busan, South Korea.
The vessel, of 172.8 meters in length overall and 40.2 meters in beam, made its call at Manzanillo before continuing its route toward the port of Buenaventura, Colombia. The new RTG cranes will be integrated into the operation of the terminal to expand its capacity and modernize its yard equipment.
In the month of August 2026, Contecon led the movement of containerized cargo in the port precinct of Manzanillo by operating 164,297 TEU.
Mexico's Ministry of Economy Initiates Antidumping Investigation on Steel Plate Imports from Japan
On September 24, 2026, IDC Online reported that the Ministry of Economy of Mexico resolved to accept the request of the national steel industry and declare the start of the administrative antidumping investigation procedure on imports of steel plate in sheets, applicable to definitive and temporary imports, originating from Japan, regardless of the country of provenance.
The procedure sets the investigated period from January 1 to December 31, 2025 and the damage analysis period from January 1, 2023 to December 31, 2025, after concluding sufficient indications of price discrimination that caused material damage to the national production branch.
Saudi Oil Export Strategy Hits New Hurdle as Red Sea Insurance Costs Soar
On September 24, 2026, Reuters reported that quoted war risk premiums for Saudi-linked oil tankers calling at the Red Sea port of Yanbu tripled in recent weeks to approximately 3% of vessel value, up from less than 1% in early July 2026.
For Saudi Red Sea ports south of Yanbu, including Jizan, quoted war risk premiums rose up to 7% of vessel value, approaching Strait of Hormuz transit premiums of 6% to 9%.
Saudi Arabia had used its East-West pipeline to divert roughly 4 million barrels per day (4% of global crude supply) to Yanbu after Gulf exports via Hormuz were constrained, but shut the pipeline on September 11, 2026 following drone attacks.
New Data Shows Suez Route Transits Rose 27% in August
On September 24, 2026, FreightWaves reported official figures from Suez Canal Authority Chairman Osama Rabie showing that 1,358 vessels transited the Suez Canal in August 2026, up 27% year-over-year from 1,070 vessels in August 2025.
That averaged nearly 44 vessel passages per day compared to 35 per day in August 2025. Net tonnage transiting the Egyptian waterway rose 51.1% to 68.3 million tons from 45.2 million tons, while monthly revenue increased 56.7% to $567.1 million.
COSCO's vessel OOCL Portugal completed a transit on September 16, 2026, marking the Chinese carrier's first southbound Suez passage since the Red Sea crisis began.
Container Rates Edge Lower Ahead of Golden Week as Suez Traffic Returns
On September 24, 2026, the Drewry World Container Index fell 1% week-on-week to $4,468 per 40-foot container.
Asia-Europe spot rates drove the decline as returning containership traffic through the Suez Canal added effective capacity: Shanghai-to-Genoa rates fell 5% to $3,835 per 40-foot container, and Shanghai-to-Rotterdam dropped 4% to $3,485 per 40-foot container.
Container carriers prepared another round of blank sailings ahead of China's Golden Week holiday.
Mexico Launches Aluminum Trade Monitor, Updates Tracking Platform
Mexico's Ministry of Economy launched a new digital aluminum trade monitor and upgraded its existing steel tracking platform.
The updated system incorporates smelt-and-cast origin data for both aluminum and steel to improve supply chain traceability.
The government deployed these digital tracking tools as part of its data infrastructure to support industrial policy and address ongoing trade frictions with the United States regarding metal tariffs.
Changan Contemplates Importing Cars from Brazil to Mexico to Mitigate the 50% Tariff
On September 23, 2026, Samuel Echeverría, director of operations of Changan México, confirmed that the Chinese automaker contemplates a contingency plan to supply the Mexican market with vehicles imported directly from its facilities in Brazil.
Changan invests more than 1,000 million dollars starting from the first quarter of 2026 to produce vehicles oriented to the local and Latin American market, such as the IDO sedan or the CS55 SUV.
The strategy seeks to counteract the impact of the increase to 50% in the tariffs that Mexico applied to vehicles imported from countries without a trade agreement and avoid transferring the costs to the final consumer or sacrificing the margin of its distributors, once its inventory exempt from this tax is exhausted, which at the beginning of the year amounted to 22,000 units and of which it retains a remainder of 8,000 vehicles.
Changan contemplates a volume of 20,000 units for the Mexican market and 80,000 units for Central and South America.
Drones and USVs Replace Mines as Black Sea's Floating Hazard
On September 23, 2026, Seatrade Maritime News reported that following the Joint War Committee's (JWC) expansion of the Black Sea Listed Area on September 16, maritime intelligence firm Ambrey stated that in the 12 months to September 21, 2026, 45 merchant vessels were struck outside the previously listed area, compared to zero in the preceding 12 months, with 33 of those strikes occurring in the last three months alone.
On September 23, 2026, maritime security firm Vanguard Tech reported an overnight Russian attack on an Antigua and Barbuda-flagged cargo vessel in the Black Sea, which killed the ship's Ukrainian master and caused a fire onboard.
Mexico Can Still Raise Tariffs on Imports from Asian Countries
On September 23, 2026 it was reported that Mexico applies in 2026 an average Most Favored Nation (MFN) tariff of 11.1% to imports from countries without a trade agreement, primarily China, having previously raised duties on 1,463 tariff fractions.
The country maintains an average bound tariff ceiling before the WTO of 36.2%, compared to the average applied MFN rate of 8.5% in 2025, which grants additional regulatory margin to the Mexican government to raise tariffs on Asian merchandise and inputs under pressure from the United States to reduce the entry of Chinese components before the T-MEC review.
Port of Manzanillo Handles 2.8 Million TEUs and Grows 11% Between January and August
The Port of Manzanillo mobilized approximately 2,825,000 TEUs between January and August 2026, representing an 11% growth compared to the same period of the previous year, according to the report from the Administración del Sistema Portuario Nacional (Asipona) Manzanillo.
Containerized exports grew 16% and represented 44% of the total containerized cargo movement, while imports accounted for 41% and transshipment 15%. Containerized cargo accounted for 75% of the commercial cargo mobilized.
During this period, 1,175 vessels arrived at the port (82 more than in 2025), of which 1,059 were commercial cargo and 76% of them mobilized containers. The facility concentrates approximately 45% of the maritime containers mobilized in Mexico.
Global Marine Insurance Hits $42.6 Billion in 2025 but Underlying Market Softness Persists
At the International Union of Marine Insurance (IUMI) annual conference in Rotterdam on September 22, 2026, IUMI reported that global marine insurance premium income reached $42.6 billion in 2025, representing a 5.5% increase from the previous year.
Transport/cargo insurance remained the largest sector at 57% of global premiums, followed by ocean hull at 24.7%, offshore energy at 11.1%, and marine liability (excluding IG P&I) at 7.3%.
Geographically, Europe accounted for 46.5% of total premiums, Asia/Pacific 30.8%, Latin America 10%, North America 7.2%, Middle East 3.5%, and Africa 2.1%.
Secretariat of the Navy Extends Concession of the Port of Manzanillo for 50 Years
The Secretariat of the Navy, through the Undersecretary of Maritime and Port Affairs, Admiral Gerardo de Jesús Toledo Guzmán, delivered to the General Director of the National Port System Administration (ASIPONA) Manzanillo, José Ignacio Moreno Díaz, the new Concession Title for the administration of the Manzanillo port facility.
The new title establishes a validity of 50 years, which will begin in 2044 once the current title concludes.
The objective of this instrument is to guarantee the continuity of the administration and operation of the port, provide legal certainty for the planning and execution of long-term projects that strengthen its capacity, competitiveness and sustainable development, and promote investments in expansion, modernization and improvement of port infrastructure and services for Mexico's foreign trade.
On September 26, 2026, SteelOrbis reported that domestic ferrous scrap prices in Mexico's Central region increased by MXN 200-300/mt ($11.3-17/mt) for most grades, while ferrous scrap prices in the Norte and Bajío regions remained unchanged.
Propose Reducing Bureaucracy and Improving Logistical Connection to Strengthen Ports
During the forum "El Sistema Portuario Mexicano", participants from the public and institutional sectors raised the need to reduce bureaucracy, streamline operation times and improve the logistical connection of Mexican ports with highways, railroads, intermodal terminals, cargo airports and border crossings to strengthen the country's foreign trade.
The vice-coordinator of Parliamentary Liaison of Morena in the Chamber of Deputies, Gabriela Jiménez Godoy, noted that the modernization of the National Port System must be accompanied by an articulated logistics network.
For his part, the president of the Commission of Marina of the Chamber of Deputies, Humberto Coss, reported that for the 2027 exercise an increase of around 1,530 million pesos is contemplated for the program of administration and operation of port captaincies and maritime affairs (approximately 30 million pesos more compared to the previous exercise).
The head of the Ports and Merchant Marine Unit, Manuel Fernando Gutiérrez Gallardo, maintained that port policy must form part of a national logistics strategy. Likewise, Vice Admiral Pascual Rosario, general coordinator of projects of the Interoceanic Corridor of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec (CIIT), reported on the advances in logistics infrastructure accumulated during 2025.
Sheinbaum Shows Interest in Face-to-Face Meeting with China's Head of State at APEC
On September 25, 2026, the President of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum, declared in a press conference that there is interest in holding a bilateral meeting with China's head of state within the framework of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum (APEC) scheduled for November in Shenzhen, China, where Mexico will receive the baton to host the event in 2028.
Sheinbaum highlighted the bilateral relations following the recent visit to Beijing by Foreign Minister Roberto Velasco to address the commercial agenda, and valued the meeting between Donald Trump and China's head of state in Washington, noting that economic competition between powers should not generate rivalries. She confirmed her interest in holding a private bilateral meeting with China's head of state.
In parallel, in the context of the T-MEC review negotiations with the United States, Sheinbaum announced that her government seeks to increase imports coming from the United States and reduce imports originating from other countries, such as China, as part of a strategy to decrease commercial dependence on nations without a treaty.
Apparent Consumption and Imports of Rolled Steel in Latin America Reach Record in July 2026
On September 25, 2026, Reportacero disseminated data from the Latin American Steel Association (ALACERO) corresponding to July 2026, reporting an apparent consumption of rolled steel in Latin America of 7.1 million tonnes, an interannual increase of 6.4%.
Rolled steel imports reached a monthly record of 3.2 million tonnes in July (+10.4% y/y), totaling 18.8 million tonnes in the January-July 2026 period (+0.9% y/y) and representing 41.4% of regional apparent consumption (compared to 41.0% in 2025 and 35.9% in 2022).
Regional crude steel production reached 4.9 Mt in July (+5.6% y/y; 33.4 Mt in the cumulative), and that of rolled products stood at 4.5 Mt (+4.9% y/y; 30.1 Mt in the cumulative). The trade balance of rolled steel in the region recorded a monthly deficit of -2.7 Mt in July and a negative accumulated balance of -14.9 Mt in the first seven months of 2026.
EU Flat and Long Steel Exports Fall 17.2% in January–July 2026
On September 25, 2026, SteelOrbis reported that during January–July 2026, EU-27 exports of flat steel products to Mexico totaled 146,788 mt, down 4.4% year-on-year from 153,616 mt in the same period of 2025.
Total EU flat and long steel exports to non-EU destinations fell 17.2% year-on-year to 5.392 million mt, valued at €5.188 billion. Flat steel exports dropped 23.3% to 2.886 million mt (€2.993 billion), while long steel exports decreased 8.8% to 2.506 million mt (€2.196 billion).
China Containerized Freight Index Rises 1.1% to 1,917.68 on September 24, 2026
On September 24, 2026, the Shanghai Shipping Exchange Institute released the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI). The composite index rose 1.1% week-on-week from 1,897.15 on September 18, 2026, to 1,917.68.
By trade lane, the Europe index fell 4.1% to 2,028.95 and the Mediterranean index fell 4% to 2,506.73. The West Coast America index rose 4.3% to 1,713.67, East Coast America rose 5.5% to 2,003.87, Korea rose 10% to 750.59, Southeast Asia rose 8.9% to 1,211.87, Japan rose 2.8% to 1,020.52, Australia/New Zealand rose 3.8% to 1,837.04, South Africa rose 0.6% to 1,380.61, West East Africa rose 1% to 1,120.69, and Persian Gulf/Red Sea rose 1.3% to 4,180.45. South America declined 0.3% to 1,667.49.
Asia–US Container Spot Rates Hold Near Peak Levels Ahead of Golden Week
On September 24, 2026, Freightos Baltic Index data showed Asia–US East Coast container spot rates remaining elevated at about $9,600 per FEU, while Asia–US West Coast spot rates rose 4% week-on-week to over $8,100 per FEU.
By contrast, Asia–North Europe spot rates fell 15% week-on-week to about $3,700 per FEU, down from a July peak near $6,000 per FEU, and Asia–Mediterranean rates fell 7%.
The divergence reflected sustained US-bound import demand, weather-related port congestion in the Far East, and carrier capacity management through blanked sailings ahead of China’s Golden Week holiday.
Lamosa Raises Investment to US$220 Million for New Mexican Tile Plant
Mexican ceramics manufacturer Grupo Lamosa will invest US$220 million in a new ceramic wall and floor tile plant in Tlaxcala, Mexico, with construction due to begin in November. The company revived the project and raised the investment from the US$200 million originally announced last year.
Chairman and CEO Federico Toussaint Elosúa said the plant will create around 250 jobs and cover approximately 1.2 million m2. The project will be developed in phases and will incorporate manufacturing technology aimed at improving production efficiency and strengthening Lamosa’s competitiveness in the Mexican market.
Baltic Dry Index Rises 1.2% to 3,473 Points on September 24, 2026
On September 24, 2026, the Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk freight index rose 1.2% to 3,473 points, its highest level since September 11.
The Capesize index, which tracks rates for vessels typically carrying 150,000-ton cargoes of iron ore and coal, increased by 1.3%.
Cosco Expands Logistics Strategy in Mexico with Land Services and Decarbonization
On September 23, 2026, Mateo Cepeda, Senior Sales & Export Manager of Cosco Shipping Lines México, told T21 that the shipping line is starting a new operational phase in Mexico focused on door-to-door services, land transportation, digitalization and decarbonization to capture a larger share of the supply chain beyond maritime transport.
Cepeda said more than half of the cargo from the Far East within the market the company groups on the west coast of Latin America has Mexico as its destination. All of Cosco’s transpacific services in this network call at the Port of Manzanillo, and also incorporate calls at Ensenada and Lázaro Cárdenas before continuing to Colombia, Peru and Chile, with the Port of Chancay added as a new operational node.
On the same day, Cosco Shipping Lines Mexico announced a strategic expansion to extend services beyond ocean container transport into land transport, door-to-door logistics, supply chain digitalization and decarbonization in Mexico. Since unifying operational systems on July 15, 2016, the company’s operational cargo volume in Mexico has expanded four to five times, driven by surging China–Mexico bilateral trade and rising container traffic at Mexican Pacific ports.
Mexico’s AHMSA and Minosa Slated for Joint Auction as Domestic HRC Prices Hit $1,010/t
On September 23, 2026, Argus Media reported that bankrupt Mexican steelmaker Altos Hornos de México (AHMSA) and miner Minera del Norte (Minosa) will be auctioned together as a single production unit on September 25, 2026, in Mexico City, after an idle period that began at the end of 2022.
Before going idle, AHMSA had crude steel production capacity of about 5.5 million metric tonnes per year and produced flat steel products including hot-rolled coil, cold-rolled coil and plate. The winning bidder must submit an industrial reactivation plan within five months of the award detailing investments, a timetable and an operational strategy.
AHMSA’s absence left Ternium and ArcelorMittal as the primary domestic flat steel producers in Mexico, pushing Mexican domestic HRC prices to $1,010/t. Domestic supply is also set to expand as Ternium advances its new steelmaking facility in Pesquería, Nuevo León, designed for annual capacity of 2.6 million tonnes of steel slabs, with commissioning expected between late 2026 and early 2027.
Contecon Manzanillo Evacuates 2,000 Containers in 24 Hours, Setting a New Record
On September 23, 2026, Data Portuaria reported that Contecon Manzanillo set a new land evacuation record for the Port of Manzanillo by evacuating an average of 2,000 import containers by road every 24 hours on August 20 and 21, 2026, moving nearly 4,000 containers over the two-day period.
The record was enabled by a 24/2 scheme coordinated with Manzanillo Customs, which extended cargo pickup windows and kept customs operations running for 24 continuous hours from Thursday to Friday.
T21 Business Intelligence’s ITOB indicator showed that average total port stay times for trucks in Manzanillo had previously jumped from 5 hours 34 minutes 16 seconds in June to 12 hours 50 minutes 27 seconds in July, with customs processing times alone rising from 2 hours 43 minutes 36 seconds to 6 hours 11 minutes 30 seconds.
APM Terminals Yucatán Adds First Electric Reach Stacker for Container Handling
On September 22, 2026, MundoMaritimo reported that APM Terminals Yucatán incorporated its first 100% electric reach stacker manufactured by Sany for container handling at Puerto Progreso, Mexico.
The equipment has a lifting capacity of up to 45 tons, can stack up to five containers high, and uses a 507 kWh lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery with 8 to 10 hours of autonomy and a CCS1 fast-charging system that fully recharges in 90 minutes. It is projected to avoid 125 tons of CO2 emissions per year compared with diesel equipment.
The addition forms part of the terminal’s modernization plan, which includes fast-charging infrastructure, expanded contracted electrical capacity, substation updates, LED lighting in yards and the expected arrival of two hybrid MHC cranes, after the terminal was chosen earlier this year as one of three global APM Terminals pilot sites for electrification projects.
Lloyd’s List Intelligence Reports 16.7% Weekly Drop in Strait of Hormuz Transits
On September 22, 2026, Lloyd’s List Intelligence updated its Strait of Hormuz Transit Monitor, reporting that total vessel transits for ships greater than 10,000 dwt through the Strait of Hormuz fell 16.7% week-on-week to 110 transits for the week of September 14–20, 2026, compared with 132 transits the prior week of September 7–13.
Eastbound transits declined 1.5% from 66 to 65, while westbound transits dropped 31.8% from 66 to 45. Tanker and gas carrier transits fell 11.6% from 86 to 76, with tanker transits falling 18.5% from 81 to 66 and gas carrier transits doubling from 5 to 10. Dark transits decreased 8.2% from 98 to 90.
Compared with pre-conflict baseline levels in February 2026, total monthly transits through the strait in August 2026 were down 84.2%, at 491 transits versus 3,098.
Port of Manzanillo Sees 11% Increase in Traffic
On September 22, 2026, MEXICONOW reported official data from the Manzanillo National Port System Administration (Asipona) showing that the Port of Manzanillo handled about 2,825,000 TEUs in the first half of 2026, an 11% year-over-year increase.
Containerized export volumes rose 16% and accounted for 44% of total containerized cargo, while import cargo represented 41% and transshipment 15%. Total commercial cargo moved through the port grew by nearly 6% between January and August 2026, with containerized cargo comprising 75%, mineral bulk 16%, agricultural bulk 6% and general cargo 4%.
Container vessel arrivals reached 1,175 in the first half of 2026, while commercial cargo vessels totaled 1,509 arrivals—90% of all port arrivals—in the first eight months of 2026.
Xeneta: Global Container Schedule Reliability Falls to 29% in August 2026
On September 22, 2026, FreightWaves reported Xeneta market data showing that global container shipping schedule reliability fell for a third consecutive month in August 2026 to 29%, down 4 percentage points from 33% in July 2026. Average vessel delay rose from 4.2 days to 5.1 days.
On the Far East–Europe trade route, on-time performance dropped 10 percentage points to 6%, with average delays reaching 8.2 days. The decline reflected operational impacts of the Red Sea crisis, African reroutings, North European port congestion, and four consecutive typhoons in China that left 1.1 million TEUs of cargo held at anchorage across Ningbo, Shanghai and Yantian after Typhoon Saudel.
Mexico Cannot Compete With a Two-Speed Supply Chain
On September 22, 2026, key results of the “2026 Comparative Study of Supply Chain Practices and Trends in Mexico”—conducted by Soy Logístico with analytical support from Deloitte—were reported based on responses from 78 supply chain executives across nine Mexican industrial sectors.
The study identified an operational gap: large corporations reached a 50% implementation rate of logistics improvement practices, while small suppliers stood at 26%. In addition, 54% of participating companies reported not using a Transportation Management System (TMS), and 54% have not integrated artificial intelligence into their supply chain management.
London Marine Insurance Market Expands High-Risk Area to Cover Entire Black Sea
On September 22, 2026, London’s Joint War Committee (JWC), which includes members of the Lloyd’s Market Association and representatives of the London insurance market, updated its advisory to expand the high-risk reporting area for marine war insurance to cover the entire Black Sea, beyond the previously included coastal waters of Russia and Ukraine.
Under the revised guidance, voyages within the territorial waters of adjacent countries continue not to require notification. The expansion follows an increase in attacks involving commercial shipping in the Black Sea over recent months.
Marine insurers count $2bn bill as Rotterdam gathering weighs market dependent on politicians
On September 22, 2026, marine war-risk underwriters attending the International Union of Marine Insurance (IUMI) annual conference in Rotterdam reported between $1.5 billion and $2 billion in cumulative claims from approximately 70 vessel casualties since the Middle East conflict began on February 28.
Hull war-risk premium rates for Strait of Hormuz transits stood at roughly 5% of vessel value for the most exposed voyages. Rates were down from peaks of 10%, but up from 0.15% to 0.25% prior to the conflict.
This translated to a $7.5 million premium for a single transit on a $150 million tanker.
Expert Outlook
Core judgment
Mexico is structurally hardening China-origin FCL import compliance and retaining WTO tariff headroom under USMCA/T-MEC pressure, shifting the clearance-risk and landed-cost regime for mid-to-large Mexican importers; Manzanillo truck-flow pilots add near-term operational friction atop already elevated port dwell. With applied MFN averaging 11.1% against a 36.2% bound ceiling after 1,463 fractions already hiked in 2026, further Asia tariff increases remain live ammunition. The undervaluation threshold cut and MVE mandate will raise documentary and seizure exposure for China FCL.
Drivers decoded
Hard facts establish the shift: ANAM’s Customs Law proposal eliminates the 50% undervaluation threshold for precautionary seizures and replaces it with a 20% parameter requiring cash deposit, while introducing a Value Intelligence System that automates risk detection by importer history, broker, sector and value gaps. The Second RGCE Resolution ends physical Manifestation of Value coexistence on 30 September 2026 and makes the Electronic Value Manifest mandatory from 1 October 2026. Mexico’s 2026 applied MFN average stands at 11.1% (up from 8.5%) versus the 36.2% WTO bound rate after hiking 1,463 fractions covering autos, textiles, steel and appliances. President Claudia Sheinbaum has stated interest in an APEC bilateral with China’s head of state while announcing a strategy to raise US imports and cut those from non-treaty countries such as China ahead of T-MEC review. Concurrently, the Contecon Manzanillo CRT truck pilot begins 30 September amid conflicting Copoma and Contecon directives, layered on July ITOB data showing average port truck attention time already up 80% to roughly 11 hours 50 minutes, with customs accounting for 48.6%.
Soft signals reinforce the political timing: industry warnings of Manzanillo bottlenecks and JIT disruption for China-origin components, plus US Section 232 frictions and aluminum/steel origin-tracking upgrades that tighten metal compliance.
Mexican Customs and the Executive (ANAM/SAT/Sheinbaum) pursue higher revenue capture and closure of undervaluation leakage while satisfying USMCA/US demands to curb Asian inputs; their leverage sits in seizure thresholds, the Value Intelligence System, RGCE/MVE rules and residual WTO bound rates, with an enforcement-first mindset aligned to the T-MEC review cycle and willingness to accept short-term port friction. The US Government seeks to force North American supply-chain decoupling from Chinese steel, aluminum and inputs ahead of T-MEC; it deploys Section 232 proposals for Mexican duties on non-NA metals and political pressure on Mexican tariff policy, treating tariffs as a negotiation chip and framing excess Chinese capacity as an existential threat. Mid-to-large Mexican importers and China exporters aim to preserve predictable landed cost and dwell while pre-hike inventory depletes; their leverage is volume shifting and public warnings of JIT disruption or Manzanillo saturation, with a mindset highly sensitive to any threshold or tariff move that immobilizes cargo or cash.
Chain effects
The Customs Law proposal cutting the undervaluation precautionary-seizure threshold from 50% to 20%, paired with the automated Value Intelligence System, raises the probability of cash deposits or embargos on China-origin FCL declarations. This feeds directly into port congestion and liquidity strain at Manzanillo, already flagged as capacity-constrained, elevating storage and dwell costs while delaying inland release for mid-to-large importers.
Mandatory Electronic Value Manifest (MVE) from 1 October 2026, together with expanded documentary requirements for related-party transactions, assists and royalties, strengthens the valuation substantiation burden on China-origin shipments. Pedimento clearance slows and broker/importer compliance spend rises, placing upward pressure on effective landed-cost predictability.
Retained MFN-bound gap (applied 11.1% versus 36.2% ceiling) plus the Mexican executive’s stated intent to cut non-treaty China imports under US pressure keeps further fraction hikes as a live option. If those materialize, direct duty uplift hits remaining China FCL categories and lifts CIF-to-door costs for Mexican importers still reliant on Asian supply.
There are no clear winners this period: Mexican authorities gain revenue-capture tools and T-MEC alignment but absorb short-term port friction, while importers face higher clearance risk and dwell without offsetting relief, and US leverage advances without immediate full decoupling.
Scenarios and signposts
Watchpoints that remain open are the Chamber of Deputies Finance Committee markup and vote timeline on the Customs Law undervaluation amendments (still under review after 9 September referral); CRT pilot operational outcomes and any unified directive after the 28 September stakeholder meeting, plus truck dwell metrics at Contecon from 30 September; SAT enforcement intensity and pedimento rejection rates once MVE goes mandatory on 1 October 2026; any DOF publication of further MFN fraction hikes on China/Asia goods before or at APEC in November; the Sheinbaum–China bilateral readout at APEC Shenzhen and any concrete import-reduction measures announced; and Manzanillo ITOB/customs processing share in September–October data releases. The Electronic Value Manifest becomes mandatory as of 1 October 2026 and the CRT pilot for Contecon import trucks starts 30 September as already published.
Baseline scenario (highly likely): Customs Law amendments advance with the 20% threshold; MVE goes live 1 October; CRT pilot runs with residual schedule noise; no immediate new Asia tariff hike. China-Mexico FCL dwell and compliance costs remain elevated but manageable for prepared importers. Trigger: Chamber of Deputies proceeds with current economic-package text; CRT pilot proceeds as announced 30 September; no emergency tariff decree before APEC.
Optimistic scenario (may): Reform is softened by industry input toward risk-based rather than automatic seizures; CRT coordination improves after the 28 September meeting; Cosco direct service and Contecon evacuation capacity absorb volume; landed-cost pressure limited to documentary uplift. Trigger: Finance Commission incorporates Concamin/AMIA hearing rights and certified-operator carve-outs; CRT directives unify.
Pessimistic scenario (unlikely): Full 20% threshold enacted without carve-outs; further MFN hikes on remaining China fractions; CRT conflicts persist into October; Manzanillo truck times stay near July peaks. Cash deposits, storage spikes and inland delays compound for China FCL. Trigger: US 232 pressure intensifies pre-T-MEC and Sheinbaum accelerates China-import reduction; CRT pilot expands without resolution of Copoma-Contecon conflict.
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