Mexico Bifurcates China Trade: $68.60 Provisional Duty on Adult Bikes Regardless of Origin Plus $1,000 Asia-Mexico GRI Raise FCL Costs, While Auto-Parts Tariffs Are Selectively Zeroed for Nearshoring

Mexico Trade Policies

Mexico imposes provisional antidumping duty on Chinese adult bicycles

On October 12, 2026, Mexico's Secretaría de Economía published in the morning edition of the Diario Oficial de la Federación the preliminary resolution of the administrative antidumping investigation on imports of adult bicycles originating from China, regardless of the country of origin (administrative file AD_08-25).

The Secretaría determined to continue the investigation into unfair international trade practices in the modality of price discrimination and to impose a provisional countervailing duty of 68.60 dollars per piece on definitive and temporary imports of adult bicycles (wheel size greater than 20 inches, excluding racing, road and electric bicycles) originating from China, regardless of the country of origin, that enter under HS Code 8712.00.05 of the TIGIE (NICO 03) or by any other.

The countervailing duty shall be applied in dollars per piece and must be settled in its equivalent in national currency. The investigation, initiated on April 11, 2025 following the request of the National Association of Bicycle Manufacturers and the producing companies Mercurio, Veloci, Benotto and Línea Siete, applies to both definitive and temporary imports.

The resolution found that during 2024 Chinese bicycles were marketed at prices 27 percent lower than national ones, causing Mexican manufacturers to lower their internal sales prices by 4 percent during that period to defend their market share amid deteriorations in production, sales and employment.

The measure enters into force on October 13, 2026 with a provisional validity of six months, pursuant to articles 57 fraction I, 62, 65, 66 and 87 of the Foreign Trade Law and article 7.4 of the Antidumping Agreement. It corresponds to the Secretaría de Hacienda y Crédito Público to apply the provisional countervailing duty throughout the national territory, with interested parties able to guarantee its payment in accordance with the Código Fiscal de la Federación.

The duty applies both to definitive and temporary imports of adult bicycles with wheel size greater than 20 inches, linking the obligation to the country of origin without regard to whether the merchandise is shipped from China or through third countries. The provisional countervailing duty of 68.60 US dollars per piece is in effect as of October 13, 2026, with a validity of six months.

Mexico eliminates 10% auto parts tariff for five years to support nearshoring

On 13 October 2026 the federal government of Mexico published in the Official Gazette of the Federation (DOF) a presidential decree that temporarily eliminates the 10% tariff on imports of parts and components for the assembly of automobiles during a period of five years.

The decree, signed on 9 October 2026 by President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo, Secretary of Finance and Public Credit Édgar Abraham Amador Zamora and Secretary of Economy Marcelo Luis Ebrard Casaubon, modifies the Tariff of the Law of General Import and Export Taxes (TIGIE) and establishes a tariff exemption (0%) for HS Code 9803.00.01.

The Single Transitory Article states that the decree enters into force the day after publication and remains valid for five years from entry into force, therefore taking effect on 14 October 2026.

The benefit applies exclusively to terminal automotive industry companies that hold fiscal deposit authorization for the assembly and manufacture of vehicles in accordance with the Customs Law and that comply with the guidelines established by the Ministry of Economy.

The measure reduces installation costs and supports productive schemes of the SKD and CKD type, allowing final assembly operations without requiring prior integration of national content and covering imports from all origins including those without free-trade agreements such as China, in line with the Economic Sectoral Program 2025–2030 and Plan Mexico goals. The presidential decree eliminating the 10% import tariff on auto parts under HS Code 9803.00.01 for five years has been published in the DOF and enters into force on 14 October 2026.

Mexico Senate approves Customs Law reform against undervaluation

On October 13, 2026, Mexico's Senate approved in general with 66 votes in favor, 37 against and one abstention, and in particular with 66 votes in favor and 34 against, the opinion reforming the Customs Law presented in the Economic Package for 2027, sending it to the federal Executive for subsequent entry into force on January 1, 2027.

This reform strengthens mechanisms to detect and sanction undervaluation of merchandise at customs, regulating the procedure for importers to prove the correct value of goods and incorporating implications of precautionary embargo for undervaluation under article 151, in addition to providing for sanctions of 50% to 100% of commercial value for infractions applicable to hydrocarbons and petroleum products.

The 50% undervaluation threshold for proceeding with precautionary embargo of merchandise through the Administrative Procedure in Customs Matters (PAMA) is eliminated from article 151, fraction VII. Through the second transitory article, it was established that the measure will apply to a list of goods to be determined by the Federal Government; for the remaining products, the authority will set the valuation percentages to be compared with identical or similar goods pursuant to articles 72 and 73.

The reform also strengthens pedimento verification faculties, defines mechanisms to substitute embargoes through customs guarantee accounts, and establishes fines of between 50% and 100% of commercial value for customs infractions involving hydrocarbons and petroleum products.

Regarding specific provisions of the precautionary embargo regime, when presumed undervaluation exceeds 20%, the importer may only substitute the embargo through a cash deposit for the amount of taxes corresponding to the value difference, while if it is below 20%, substitution may be carried out through a customs guarantee account. The National Customs Agency of Mexico (ANAM) must issue the corresponding administrative provisions specifying the goods and percentages before entry into force on January 1, 2027. The reform has been approved by the Senate and sent to the federal Executive for entry into force on January 1, 2027.

Mexico initiates sunset review of antidumping duty on Indian ferrosilicomanganese

On October 12, 2026, Mexico's Ministry of Economy officially initiated a sunset review of the 40.25% antidumping duty on ferrosilicomanganese originating in India, keeping the countervailing duty in effect throughout the investigation.

The review was triggered by a petition submitted on September 9, 2026, by domestic producer Compañía Minera Autlán ahead of the duty's scheduled October 18, 2026 expiration.

The 40.25% duty applies to shipments entering under TIGIE tariff code 7202.30.01 (NICO 00), the steel manufacturing promotion Regla 8a (Rule Eight) code 9802.00.13 (NICO 00), and any other tariff code under which the alloy might be declared, with material quality evaluated under standard NMX-B-227-CANACERO-2012.

The review period covers July 1, 2025 to June 30, 2026, with an injury analysis period of July 1, 2021 to June 30, 2026. Indian exporter Mortex (India) was identified as an interested party in the proceeding. Mexico's Ministry of Economy has initiated the sunset review of the 40.25% antidumping duty on ferrosilicomanganese from India, with the duty remaining in effect during the investigation.

Manzanillo Port Operations

Manzanillo port reopens after Hurricane Simón

Starting at 09:00 on Monday, October 12, 2026, the Regional Port Captaincy of Manzanillo reopened the port to vessels larger than 500 Gross Register Tons (GRT) / Gross Tonnage Units (UAB) in ocean and cabotage navigation, as well as to smaller vessels, after winds of 2 to 4 knots and 2-meter waves were verified following the passage of Hurricane Simón.

To expedite clearance of detained cargo, the National Customs Agency of Mexico (ANAM) confirmed extraordinary continuous operational shifts throughout the 24 hours of October 12, 2026, and implemented continuous 24-hour operations on October 12 and 13.

Container terminals SSA, TIMSA and OCUPA resumed appointment assignments. Contecon Manzanillo applied staggered rescheduling schemes for entries, with passes from 04:00 entering at 13:00 as an example. The Land Traffic Control Center postponed the dispatch of containers to the southern zone until 19:00 while enabling the Terrestrial Regulatory Center (CRT) from 16:00 on October 12 for the reception and scanning of import units destined for Contecon.

In parallel, the Secretariat of the Navy kept the port of Lázaro Cárdenas closed to all navigation until the morning of October 12.

Manzanillo port performance statistics

Official statistics from the Administración del Sistema Portuario Nacional (ASIPONA Manzanillo) published on October 12, 2026, show that the Port of Manzanillo handled approximately 2.82 million TEUs (nearly 2.83 million TEUs), or 2,824,836 TEUs, between January and August 2026, representing an 11% year-on-year growth compared with the same period in 2025.

Containerized cargo accounted for approximately 75%, or three-quarters, of the port's commercial cargo tonnage, while overall commercial cargo volume rose nearly 6%. Export containers reached 1,241,966 TEUs (44% of container throughput, up 16% year-on-year), import containers totaled 1,163,890 TEUs (41%), and transshipment accounted for 418,980 TEUs (15%).

Manzanillo received 1,175 vessel calls during the eight-month period, 82 more than in 2025, of which 1,059 were commercial cargo vessels. In terminal infrastructure, Contecon Manzanillo secured authorization in August to accommodate 24,000-TEU container vessels with an approved operating draft of 15.5 meters.

According to a report from the Secretaría de Marina (Semar) released on October 14, 2026, the Manzanillo Customs Office ranked first nationally in tax collection during July and August 2026, with revenues of 19,873.62 million pesos and 17,055 million pesos, respectively. In July 2026, Manzanillo contributed 15.1% of national customs collection, positioning itself as the month of highest collection of the year in the Mexican customs system. This represented a nominal increase of 23.7% compared with July 2025 and of 67% compared with July 2021, with more than 100 thousand foreign trade operations registered that month.

Likewise, the maritime customs coordinated by Semar in collaboration with the Agencia Nacional de Aduanas de México (ANAM) generated 54.8% of the country's customs collection in July through 18.7% of the total pedimentos. In containerized cargo movement, Manzanillo mobilized 2,455,956 TEU, an increase of 11.7% compared with the same period of 2025. Naval, customs and port authorities highlighted that extended service hours, non-intrusive inspection systems and risk analysis schemes were implemented to speed up the dispatch of goods and promote efficiency in customs inspections.

Strait of Hormuz Shipping

Strait of Hormuz Attacks, Sinkings and Insurance Impacts

On 14 October 2026, maritime security data from Vanguard, the International Maritime Organization (IMO), and UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) indicated that commercial shipping attacks in or near the Strait of Hormuz reached their highest level since the outbreak of regional war, with at least ten vessels attacked since 11 October 2026.

The incidents included four vessels struck on 13 October and six on 11 October, representing the highest single-day attack tally of the conflict. A total of 23 attacks have been recorded since the start of October 2026, almost double the monthly average since hostilities began, resulting in two missing seafarers and a sunken container ship.

Vanguard analyst Barun Gupta stated that while regional oil flows had recently recovered to roughly 80% of pre-war levels, the escalating cadence of strikes demonstrates continued vulnerability for commercial shipping and global energy supply lines passing through the strait.

Two container ships sank near the Strait of Hormuz following projectile strikes amid an intensifying campaign against commercial vessels in the chokepoint. UKMTO reported at least five maritime incidents over the preceding 48 hours, including drone strikes targeting tankers and merchant ships around the Hormuz waterway.

The Singapore-flagged container ship GFS Pride, carrying 2,500 containers and with a capacity of 2,824 TEU, sank on 14 October after being struck the previous day. It caught fire following an unidentified projectile strike during a transit on 13 October, with all 21 crew members evacuated without injury. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated the vessel hit a naval mine while on an unapproved transit route.

Hours later, the Antigua- and Barbuda-flagged container vessel Cape Dao also sank near the strait after being struck by a projectile on 23 September, according to International Maritime Organization data.

Ministers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and participating non-OPEC countries stated that shipping and insurance costs have surged to a record high of more than one-third of commodity value, impeding the efficient movement of crude oil and products while fueling global inflationary pressures.

Marine war underwriters are facing surging exposure following vessel sinkings in the Strait of Hormuz. Additional war risk premiums (AWRP) for tankers transiting the region currently stand between 6% and 10% of hull value, representing up to $20 million in war risk insurance costs for a single supertanker voyage entering the Persian Gulf, compared to pre-conflict rates of approximately 0.25% according to Marcus Baker, global head of marine at Marsh.

Neil Roberts of the Lloyd's Market Association (LMA) stated that war risk cover remains available for a price, noting that quotes had fluctuated from roughly 2% following the June US-Iran memorandum of understanding, spiking to 7.5%–10% in late July, and softening to 3%–8% by late August.

As of 14 October 2026, attacks in or near the Strait of Hormuz have reached their highest level since the start of the regional war, two container ships have sunk, and shipping plus insurance costs have hit record levels with war risk premiums at 6%–10% of hull value.

Hormuz Transit Statistics and Tanker Market Adaptation

Transit statistics for the Strait of Hormuz showed significant recovery in September 2026. Published by Lloyd's List Intelligence on 12 October 2026, the Strait of Hormuz Transit Monitor indicated at least 477 non-Iranian-linked transits, the highest volume since the outbreak of regional war in late February.

Non-Iranian-linked inbound transits into the Middle East Gulf increased to at least 231 voyages from 198 in August and 160 in July. Bulk carrier transits reached 59 movements, up from 40 in August and 57 in July, exceeding the March–May monthly average of 24.

Due to growing congestion in the Gulf of Oman ship-to-ship transfer network, 13 former Hormuz shuttle VLCCs unloaded Saudi-origin crude directly in India or conducted transfers off India's west coast in September.

In response to ongoing disruptions, the LR2 tanker market adapted with a shift from clean products to crude. BIMCO reported on 13 October 2026 that clean petroleum product volumes on LR2 tankers declined 28% year-on-year to 2.1 mbpd in the first nine months of 2026 from 2.9 mbpd in 2025. Persian Gulf loadings fell sharply from 1.2 mbpd to 0.4 mbpd.

Meanwhile, carriage of crude oil and heavy products rose by 1.8 mbpd to 5.1 mbpd, increasing total LR2 loaded volumes by 1.0 mbpd or 15% year-on-year. Total tonne-mile demand grew 2%, though average sailing distances decreased 12% with shorter routes from the Americas and Mediterranean replacing long-haul Persian Gulf flows.

Transit volumes through the Strait of Hormuz reached their highest levels since late February in September 2026, accompanied by LR2 tankers shifting cargo from clean products to crude oil and heavy products amid disruptions.

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AMTI Requests ANAM to Resume Internal Transits from Manzanillo and Lázaro Cárdenas to Mexico City

The Asociación Mexicana de Transporte Intermodal (AMTI) formally requested the Agencia Nacional de Aduanas de México (ANAM) to analyze the viability of reactivating internal maritime transits by rail from the ports of Manzanillo and Lázaro Cárdenas to Mexico City, specifically to the Ferrovalle inland customs, to facilitate intermodal cargo flow, reduce logistical interruptions and maintain fiscal traceability.

AMTI president Luis Hernández noted that since May 2025 ANAM canceled the internal transits to the capital as a measure to eradicate smuggling, obliging the release of all import cargo at the maritime customs of origin. After personnel rotations and purges in the customs of Manzanillo and Lázaro Cárdenas, the scheme was not restored.

As a consequence, all cargo destined for Mexico City must undergo dispatch and physical release at the ports of Manzanillo and Lázaro Cárdenas — which concentrate approximately 43% and 28% of the national container movement, respectively — generating bottlenecks due to customs saturation and additional costs of storage, delays and equipment demurrage for importers.

Delays at Mexican Ports Cost Trucking Firms Millions

Javier Candejas Meneses, President of the Mexican Council for Foreign Trade in the Northeast (COMCE Noreste), stated on October 13, 2026, that turnaround times for freight transport at the ports of Manzanillo, Lázaro Cárdenas, Altamira and Veracruz represent an operating cost of approximately US$39.6 million per day, totaling about US$1 billion per month across transportation companies, warehouses and industrial shippers.

According to the Port Motor Transport Average Time Indicator for July 2026, freight vehicles recorded average processing times of 12 hours and 50 minutes in Manzanillo, 11 hours and 58 minutes in Lázaro Cárdenas, 9 hours and 36 minutes in Altamira, and 7 hours and 13 minutes in Veracruz.

Taking into account fuel, operator wages and tractor-trailer utilization, the estimated operating cost per cycle reached US$268 in Manzanillo, US$251 in Lázaro Cárdenas, US$201 in Altamira and US$151 in Veracruz.

These logistical delays directly impact supply chains in the Northeast manufacturing corridor — Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo León, Tamaulipas and Durango — which accounted for 48% of Mexico's US$353.3 billion total exports during the first half of 2026, including factory inventory delivery disruptions and warehouse rescheduling.

Customs Ramp Up Reviews and Costs

The president of the Mexican Council of Foreign Trade (COMCE) Noreste, Javier Cendejas, and director Andrés Franco Zaldívar reported that greater reviews at customs and the lack of investment in infrastructure amid rising imports generate an estimated operational cost of 1,160 million pesos per month (44.4 million pesos per day) for companies in the northeast at the country's main maritime ports.

According to COMCE, the average attention time for auto transport to enter the port, pick up the container, carry out customs clearance and exit is 12 hours and 50 minutes in Manzanillo (with 4 to 5 additional hours in line to exit to the highway) and 11 hours and 58 minutes in Lázaro Cárdenas, representing a direct impact of 4,934 and 4,625 pesos per container respectively, considering diesel, operator and tractor-trailer costs.

The Terminal Handling Charge (THC) tariff increased from 4,000 to almost 20,000 pesos per import container in ten years covering 7 days of stay, while port delays exceeding 10 days result in extra stay costs of 120 to 250 dollars per day.

The organization highlighted that greater customs reviews and precautionary embargoes under the Customs Law have increased cases of container abandonment due to the costs and times involved in legal defense.

SE and ANAM Issue Clarification on Derogation of Annex 4 of Estimated Prices Resolution in Consolidated Pedimentos

The Secretaría de Economía (SE) and the Agencia Nacional de Aduanas de México (ANAM) issued in Mexico City on October 13, 2026, Joint Press Release 99/2026 regarding the application of the Resolution that repeals Annex 4 of the resolution that establishes the mechanism to guarantee the payment of contributions on merchandise subject to estimated prices by the Secretaría de Hacienda y Crédito Público (SHCP), published in the Diario Oficial de la Federación on September 14, 2026 and effective since September 15, 2026.

The authorities clarified that, in order to provide legal certainty, as of September 15, 2026 the assumption for the enforceability of the automatic import permit ceased to be updated exclusively with respect to textile and clothing/apparel products that were listed in the repealed Annex 4 for operations processed via consolidated pedimentos.

Consequently, the remaining merchandise and sectors must comply with the provisions in Chapter 2.2 (Permits and Notices) and Annex 2.2.1 of the Agreement by which the Secretaría de Economía issues General Rules and Criteria in Foreign Trade Matters, as well as with the other applicable non-tariff regulations and restrictions.

COMCE Noreste: Delays in Mexican Ports Generate Daily Costs of 44.4 Million Pesos for Trucking

Javier Cendejas Meneses, president of the Mexican Council of Foreign Trade of the Northeast (COMCE Noreste), reported on October 12, 2026 in a press conference that the attention times for cargo trucking in the maritime ports of Manzanillo, Lázaro Cárdenas, Altamira and Veracruz represent an estimated operational cost of 44.4 million pesos daily, equivalent to approximately 1,160 million pesos monthly.

According to the figures of the Average Times Indicator of Trucking in Ports corresponding to July 2026, the attention times per unit were: Manzanillo with 12 hours and 50 minutes (estimated operational cost of 4,934 pesos per cycle considering fuel, operator and tractor-trailer); Lázaro Cárdenas with 11 hours and 58 minutes (4,626 pesos); Altamira with 9 hours and 36 minutes (3,701 pesos); and Veracruz with 7 hours and 13 minutes (2,776 pesos).

Cendejas Meneses explained that these detentions impact carriers, warehouses, factories and importing and exporting companies in their processes of receiving and dispatching inputs.

COMCE Noreste also presented a model of moving a 40-foot container where the accumulation of delays in port, highway and border crossings generates additional surcharges of between 9,000 and 11,000 pesos.

Tariffs on China Cool Operations at the Port of Manzanillo

Raúl Sandoval López, director general of Grupo Hazesa, noted that the application of tariffs of up to 50% decreed on merchandise from countries without a trade agreement such as China, added to the countervailing duties imposed on hot-rolled steel from China and Vietnam after an antidumping investigation in September 2026 at the request of Ternium, reduced between 300 thousand and 350 thousand tons of cargo in the terminal they operate at docks 16 and 17 of the port of Manzanillo.

The terminal mobilizes on average one million tons annually, concentrated in non-containerized bulk steel that enters Mexico for industrial transformation and subsequent export to the United States.

The company reported a 40% drop in arrivals of this product from Asia, forcing importing clients to source from the United States at a higher cost after also finding restrictions in alternative sources such as Vietnam and Malaysia.

Maersk Updates North America Ocean Freight Capacity and Customs Requirements for October 2026

Maersk released its North America market update for October 2026, outlining constrained ocean capacity across transpacific and transatlantic routes with restricted spot container availability through the month.

Alongside vessel allocations, the advisory outlined updated customs requirements affecting cross-border supply chains in the United States and Mexico, specifically highlighting CBP's voiding of importer identity numbers lacking complete documentation effective September 18, 2026, and Mexican authorities enforcing the mandatory electronic customs value declaration (Manifestación de Valor Electrónica - MVE) starting October 1, 2026.

Network adjustments also include adding a weekly port call at Freeport, Texas, to the Gulf Ocean Express service starting October 21, 2026.

Mexico publishes decree exempting customs guarantee for international transit through the Interoceanic Corridor between Coatzacoalcos and Salina Cruz

On October 13, 2026, Mexico's Federal Executive published in the Official Gazette of the Federation (DOF) the Decree establishing the conditions applicable to the international transit of goods carried out from the customs located at the Ports of Coatzacoalcos, Veracruz and Salina Cruz, Oaxaca. The decree entered into force the day following its publication.

The provision regulates the international transit regime of goods transported exclusively through the Interoceanic Corridor of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec to connect the Atlantic and Pacific oceans in both directions. It exempts users from the obligation to provide the guarantee in the customs account provided for in article 86-A, fraction II of the Customs Law.

To access the benefit, the transfer must be carried out continuously under the general rules of the Tax Administration Service (SAT). The goods must leave through the destination customs in the same conditions in which they entered. Commercial storage, commercialization, transformation, manufacturing, deconsolidation, fractionation or change of destination within the national territory are expressly prohibited.

Users must cover the corresponding tariffs for the use of infrastructure. The Ministry of the Navy (SEMAR), the SHCP and the National Customs Agency of Mexico (ANAM) implement the operational and technological mechanisms of traceability and supervision of the transit.

Puerto El Mezquital will pass to the Altamira Customs

The Secretariat of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP), through an agreement of the National Customs Agency of Mexico (ANAM) published in the Official Gazette of the Federation on October 9 and disseminated on October 13, 2026, modified the territorial adscription of customs offices.

The measure transfers the customs section of Puerto El Mezquital (municipality of Matamoros) to the administration of the Altamira Customs. It seeks to regroup the maritime port facilities under customs with specialized maritime competence to speed up the dispatch of merchandise, facilitate the mobility of inspection personnel and homologate fiscalization criteria and customs procedures on the Tamaulipas coast.

The Matamoros Customs maintains control of its aerial, railway and border sections (Lucio Blanco-Los Indios).

CMA CGM adds calls to M2X and Drewry reports rate drop with blank sailings

The shipping line CMA CGM confirmed the reincorporation of regular calls in Ningbo (China) and Lázaro Cárdenas (Mexico) in its weekly M2X service. The new rotation is scheduled to start on October 23, 2026 with the vessel Cosco Prince Rupert (8,238 TEU).

The service will operate a 56-day cycle using eight vessels between 6,350 and 9,953 TEU covering Ningbo, Shanghai, Qingdao, Busan, Ensenada, Manzanillo and Lázaro Cárdenas.

In terms of freight rates, the Drewry report for the week ended October 9, 2026 showed a weekly decrease of 2% in the World Container Index (WCI), standing at 4,351 dollars per 40-foot container. On transpacific routes, the Shanghai-Los Angeles freight fell 3% to 7,624 dollars and Shanghai-New York decreased 2% to 10,220 dollars, while Shanghai-Rotterdam fell 2% to 3,337 dollars.

In the face of downward pressure, Drewry recorded six cancellations of sailings (blank sailings) for the following week of October in order to reduce capacity. Shipping lines project increases in FAK rates during the second half of the month.

Panama Canal surcharges 2026: what each TEU pays

Water inflows in the Panama Canal basin were located 44% below average before the El Niño phenomenon projected until 2027. The Panama Canal Authority (ACP) cut its daily transits to 34 slots on September 4 and to 32 on September 15, 2026, distributed in 9 slots for Neopanamax locks and 23 for Panamax. The operational draft was adjusted to 47.5 feet as of October 1.

In light of the restrictions and last-minute slot auctions that exceeded one million dollars, shipping lines apply interoceanic surcharges. CMA CGM updated a Panama Canal Transit Surcharge of USD 250 per TEU for all cargo originating in the Far East toward the East Coast of Mexico, Central America, the Caribbean, Guyana and Manaus for shipments with ETD after August 26.

CMA CGM also charges USD 500 from the Far East to East Coast and Gulf. Hapag-Lloyd applies USD 130 from the Far East to North America. Ocean Network Express (ONE) charges USD 150 in the eastbound Transpacific.

Maritime freight China-Mexico October 2026: what increases

CMA CGM announced a general rate increase (GRI) of USD 1,000 per containerized unit for cargo departing from Asia to Latin America and Mexico, including the port of Manzanillo. The increase applies to shipments with loading date from October 15, 2026 after the Golden Week recess.

The surcharge covers all ports in Asia to both coasts of South America, Central America, the Caribbean and Mexico. It encompasses dry cargo, refrigerated, oversized and paid empty containers. It is governed strictly by the container loading date and not by the booking date.

This increase adds to the Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) applied by Maersk to Mexico since August 22 of USD 1,000 per 20-foot container and USD 2,000 per 40-foot container, as well as emergency fuel surcharges due to the doubling of bunker prices in Singapore.

Lázaro Cárdenas returns to CMA CGM's weekly M2X route

The shipping company CMA CGM announced the formal reincorporation of the ports of Lázaro Cárdenas (Michoacán, Mexico) and Ningbo (China) to the regular itinerary of its weekly maritime service M2X between Asia and the Mexican Pacific coast.

According to information from Alphaliner, the new rotation scheme will begin on October 23, 2026 with the berthing in Ningbo of the container ship Cosco Prince Rupert, a vessel with a nominal capacity of 8,238 TEU.

To handle this expansion and maintain the fixed weekly frequency, the company will increase its assigned fleet from seven to eight container ships with variable capacities between 6,350 and 9,953 TEU, structuring a total operational cycle of 56 days.

The complete itinerary will directly link the ports of Ningbo, Shanghai and Qingdao in China, as well as Busan in South Korea, with Ensenada, Manzanillo and Lázaro Cárdenas in Mexico before its return to Asia.

SE and ANAM issue clarification on the end of enforceability of the automatic import permit for textiles from Annex 4

On October 13, 2026, the Ministry of Economy (SE) and the National Customs Agency of Mexico (ANAM) issued Joint Communiqué 99/2026 regarding the resolution that repeals Annex 4 of the mechanism to guarantee the payment of contributions on goods subject to estimated prices of the SHCP.

The agencies clarified that as of September 15, 2026, the enforceability of the automatic import permit ceased to be updated exclusively with respect to the textile and clothing products listed in the repealed Annex 4 in operations through consolidated customs declarations.

Other sectors are required to follow the procedures of Chapter 2.2 and Annex 2.2.1 of the Foreign Trade Rules.

Mexico cross-border market update: September 2026

Cross-border logistics intelligence platform Cargado reported key operational and regulatory shifts in United States–Mexico freight lanes on October 12, 2026.

The update highlighted that Mexico's tax administration (SAT) will begin a phased rollout of electronic customs value declarations (Manifestación de Valor Electrónica) on November 1, 2026. Mandatory compliance takes effect for IMMEX temporary import operations on January 1, 2027, and for definitive imports on January 15, 2027.

Regarding cross-border freight market fundamentals, southbound truckload capacity from the South Central United States into Monterrey and El Bajío saw above-average equipment supply during the quarter. Northbound truck carrier bidding from El Bajío toward the U.S. Midwest and Southeast rose compared to April, pushing northbound linehaul rates up by 3 cents to US$3.65 per mile in September.

Made in North America: upcoming change to 'Made in Mexico'

On October 14, 2026, the Government of Mexico confirmed that it is working jointly with the United States and Canada on the design of a gradual plan to replace inputs imported from Asia and other regions with products manufactured in North America. The goal is set to increase between 20% and 40% the regional value added in selected strategic industries.

The initiative is debated within the framework of Plan Mexico and the review of the T-MEC to strengthen North American supply chains and reduce dependence on raw materials and Asian parts. This anticipates a tightening in the rules of origin required for manufacturing installed in Mexico.

Decree establishing conditions for international transit of goods from Coatzacoalcos and Salina Cruz customs

On October 13, 2026, the Presidency of the Republic of the United Mexican States published in the morning edition of the Official Gazette of the Federation (DOF) the Decree establishing the conditions applicable to the international transit of goods carried out from the customs offices located at the Ports of Coatzacoalcos, Veracruz and Salina Cruz, Oaxaca.

The decree regulates the customs regime of international transit when the entry customs sends to the exit customs goods of foreign origin that arrive in the national territory destined for abroad. It regulates the assumptions, operational requirements, deadlines, responsibilities and applicable quotas for the transfer of cargo between the customs offices of the maritime ports of Coatzacoalcos and Salina Cruz.

Mexico confirms advances in T-MEC review, but still no agreement with the US

The President of Mexico confirmed on October 12, 2026 that the Mexican Government maintains fluid conversations with the United States administration within the T-MEC review process, after statements by Donald Trump regarding the possibility of agreeing on an independent commercial scheme with Mexico excluding Canada.

The Mexican President ruled out the annulment of the trilateral framework by pointing out that the T-MEC is a law approved and ratified by the Congresses of the three signatory countries. The conversations continue without there yet being a final formalized agreement. Among the country's immediate priorities is the reduction of the current tariffs on key industries.

“U.S. Content” Clarified for USMCA Preferences Under Section 232 Metal Tariffs

The Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) issued official guidance to U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) on October 14, 2026 regarding the assessment of U.S. content for Canadian and Mexican products that qualify for preferential treatment under the USMCA with respect to Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper.

Effective at 12:01 a.m. Eastern Time on October 14, 2026, pursuant to a presidential proclamation in effect through December 31, 2027, USMCA-qualifying Canadian and Mexican goods are subject to a 25 percent tariff applicable exclusively to their non-U.S. content.

BIS advised CBP that "U.S. content" encompasses: (1) the value attributable to parts wholly obtained, entirely produced, or substantially transformed in the U.S.; and (2) to the extent not otherwise accounted for, the value attributable to steel melted and poured, aluminum smelted and cast, and/or copper smelted and cast in the U.S.

The guidance took effect for goods entered or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption on or after 12:01 a.m. Eastern Time on October 14, 2026.

Suez Canal Container Ship Transits Exceed 50% of Pre-Disruption Levels

BIMCO reported on October 14, 2026 that container ship transits via the Red Sea and Suez Canal have rebounded to exceed 50% of pre-disruption levels.

According to Clarksons Research data cited by BIMCO chief shipping analyst Niels Rasmussen, weekly container ship capacity transiting the Suez Canal averaged 753,000 TEU during the first two weeks of October 2026, compared with 1,457,000 TEU during the same period in 2023 and 141,000 TEU per week between February 2024 and mid-2026.

Data from MB Shipbrokers showed 72 container ships transiting the waterway over the past week versus a four-week prior average of 57 transits weekly.

Consultant Linerlytica projects a full-scale return of container carriers to the Suez route by the first quarter of 2027, with the volume of ships over 4,000 TEU operating through the Red Sea surpassing 50 transits per week as all four major alliances reinstate services via the canal.

Commerce Defines U.S. Content Under Proclamation 11032 While CBP Filing Instructions Remain Deferred

On October 14, 2026, the Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security published notice 91 FR 65162 (Docket No. 260918-0056) defining "U.S. content" under clause (2)(d) of Presidential Proclamation 11032 for qualifying USMCA goods from Canada and Mexico.

The definition takes effect for entries or warehouse withdrawals on or after 12:01 a.m. Eastern Time on October 14, 2026. Eligible content covers parts wholly obtained, produced, or substantially transformed in the U.S., or domestic melted and poured steel and smelted and cast aluminum or copper.

The publication does not specify calculation formulas, multi-stage allocation guidelines, or required documentation.

Additionally, CBP has yet to release entry-filing instructions for tariff headings 9903.82.18 and 9903.82.19 originally deferred in its June 5, 2026 guidance, leaving customs brokers and importers with documentation uncertainties.

Concamin Foresees Mexico and the US Will Reach Agreement Only After Midterm Elections

On October 14, 2026, in the framework of the 58th National Forum of the Chemical Industry, Alejandro Malagón Barragán, president of the Confederation of Industrial Chambers (Concamin), declared that Mexico and the United States maintain the fourth bilateral round for the T-MEC review although it still does not have a set date to be held in Washington.

Regarding tariffs, the business leader specified that the operational priority of the sector is concentrated on Section 232 imposed by Washington on steel, aluminum and light vehicles.

He foresaw that the achievement of definitive agreements on these tariffs will be delayed until after the U.S. elections.

US Slab Imports Up 8.9 Percent in August 2026 from July

U.S. imports of steel slab totaled 633,119 mt in August 2026, representing an 8.9 percent increase from July and an 88.6 percent surge compared to August 2025, valued at $379.0 million.

Mexico served as the second-largest supplier of slab to the United States during the month with 144,266 mt, behind Brazil (259,895 mt) and ahead of Canada (75,227 mt) and Indonesia (68,240 mt).

Mexican Steel Industry Maintains Investments in Productive Capacity Despite US Tariffs and Low Utilization

The specialized publication Reportacero reported on October 13, 2026 that steel producers in Mexico maintain the execution of investment projects in installed capacity and infrastructure despite the 50% tariff measures from the United States.

Deacero advances in scrap processing infrastructure with new shredders for electric arc furnaces in Aguascalientes (in operation) and Ciudad Juárez (initiated in 2025).

Ternium maintains in development the third phase of its industrial complex in Pesquería, Nuevo León, which contemplates a hot rolling mill with a capacity of 550 thousand tons, 600 thousand tons of customizable steel and a new cold rolling mill with an annual capacity of 1.6 million tons.

ArcelorMittal continues with the expansion of iron concentrate production at the Las Truchas mine, Michoacán; Frisa operates its new special quality steel bar plant in Monterrey; and Grupo Acerero and TYASA incorporated capacities for slabs and special steels.

In contrast to these expansions, data from CANACERO and statements from industry executives indicate that as of March 12, 2026 Mexican steel mills were operating at 55% of their installed capacity, pointed out by Sergio de la Maza Jiménez (director of TenarisTamsa) as the lowest level in 25 years due to tariff pressure.

CBP Proposes Stricter Low-Value Import Procedures and Mandatory Customs Bonds for Informal Entries

On October 13, 2026, licensed customs brokerage analysis outlined the operational impacts of CBP's notice of proposed rulemaking (91 FR 64532, Docket No. USCBP-2026-0298, RIN 1685-AA38) regarding low-value imports valued at $2,500 or less, open for public comment through December 7, 2026.

The proposed amendments to 19 CFR parts 113, 128, 141, 143, and 145 require all Type 11 informal entries to secure a customs bond and transition to mandatory electronic filing on or before the date of importation rather than 15 days post-arrival.

It creates a dedicated Type 13 electronic entry for international mail, introduces abandonment rules for unentered postal packages, applies liquidated damages for bond defaults, and permits select Chapter 99 goods valued between $250 and $2,500 to utilize informal entry procedures.

Baltic Dry Bulk Index Slides into Seventh Consecutive Day of Decline

On October 13, 2026, the Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index extended losses for a seventh straight session, weighed down by a decline in Capesize rates.

The main Baltic index fell 51 points, or 1.79%, to 2,801 points, reaching its lowest level since August 20, 2026.

The Capesize index dropped 154 points, or 3.71%, to 3,994 points, its weakest level since late July 2026, with average daily earnings for Capesize vessels declining by $1,396 to $32,719.

In other sectors, the Panamax index held steady at 2,432 points with average daily earnings unchanged at $21,886, while the Supramax index rose 12 points, or 0.66%, to 1,833 points.

The benchmark slide occurred alongside softening iron ore futures driven by ample global supply, elevated Chinese port inventories, and declining shipping costs.

US Steel Imports Up 7.2 Percent in August 2026 from July

According to preliminary census data from the US Department of Commerce reported on October 13, 2026, US monthly steel imports in August rose 7.2 percent month-on-month and 29.8 percent year-on-year to 2.21 million mt, valued at $2.1 billion.

Mexico ranked among the top four supplying nations, exporting 230,093 mt to the US, behind South Korea (388,894 mt), Brazil (318,671 mt), and Canada (268,097 mt).

Imports by product group comprised 720,240 mt of semi-finished steel, 587,908 mt of flat products, 431,548 mt of long products, and 390,270 mt of pipe and tube.

The American Iron and Steel Institute estimated foreign steel penetration in the US market at 17.5 percent in August and 16.0 percent for the first eight months of 2026.

US Steel Exports Down 2.9 Percent in August 2026 from July

U.S. Department of Commerce export data published October 13, 2026 showed monthly steel exports in August decreased by 2.9 percent from July and 1.9 percent year-on-year to 574,233 mt, valued at $1.2 billion.

Mexico was the leading export destination for U.S. steel, taking 365,858 mt in August (down 1.1 percent month-on-month, but up 6.8 percent year-on-year), followed by Canada with 179,373 mt and China with 2,805 mt.

Major exported steel products included hot-dip galvanized (HDG) sheet at 102,725 mt, cut-length steel plates at 75,634 mt, cold-rolled sheets at 66,007 mt, hot-rolled sheets at 45,869 mt, and plates in coil at 40,310 mt.

Suez Canal Authority Reports Containership Transits Surged to 166 in Q3 2026

The Suez Canal Authority (SCA) announced data on October 13, 2026 showing that 166 medium (over 130,000 net tons) and ultra-large container vessels transited the Suez Canal during the third quarter of 2026 (July to September), up from 16 vessels during the third quarter of 2025.

Total net tonnage for large container vessels transiting the waterway reached 29 million net tons during Q3 2026, compared to 2.4 million net tons in Q3 2025.

SCA Chairman Admiral Ossama Rabiee stated that the canal provides reduced transit times and shorter voyage distances that assist container carriers in mitigating operational and bunker fuel expenses.

Marcelo Ebrard Highlights That Mexico Pays an Effective Tariff Rate Lower Than 3% Compared to 22% for China in the United States

On October 13, 2026, during a visit to the Chamber of Deputies, the Secretary of Economy, Marcelo Ebrard, noted that Mexico pays an effective tariff rate lower than 3% in its trade with the United States, compared to the 22% faced by China due to United States protectionist measures.

Ebrard highlighted that Mexico remains the main exporter to the United States with increases in the semiconductor and electronics sectors.

He announced that on Friday, October 16, he will present information before legislative commissions on the T-MEC review and economic perspectives.

Agreement Delimits Port Precinct of San Felipe in Baja California

On October 12, 2026, the Secretaría de Marina (SEMAR) and the Secretaría de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales (SEMARNAT) published in the Diario Oficial de la Federación the Agreement on the delimitation and determination of the Port Precinct of the Port of San Felipe, Municipality of San Felipe, State of Baja California.

Pursuant to Article First, the port precinct is delimited and determined with a total surface area of 982,497.1950 m2, integrated by a federal maritime zone (water area) of 919,199.7489 m2, a federal maritime-terrestrial zone of 56,855.3655 m2 and land reclaimed from the sea of 6,442.0806 m2 (broken down into 5,079.6214 m2 of surface and 1,362.4592 m2 of building surface).

In accordance with Article 30 of the Ley Orgánica de la Administración Pública Federal, the water areas, land, works and installations and public domain assets located within the polygon are declared affected to the port precinct and under the administration of the Secretaría de Marina to attend to port operation and maritime transport needs.

The Agreement enters into force the day after its publication in the Diario Oficial de la Federación.

CBP Proposes Advance Passenger and Crew Screening for International Cross-Border Trains

On October 12, 2026, cross-border transportation regulatory analysis detailed a notice of proposed rulemaking scheduled for publication in the Federal Register on October 13, 2026 (Docket No. USCBP-2026-0992, RIN 1651-AB60) by U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP).

The proposed rule adds Subpart K to 19 CFR Part 123, obligating railway carriers operating international trains crossing the U.S. border with Canada or Mexico to electronically transmit advance traveler and crew information prior to reaching the border.

The requirement applies to passenger trains, freight trains, and international rail movements traversing the U.S. in transit. Carriers must transmit advance train arrival or departure notices at least 24 hours prior to border crossing and passenger/crew data at least 60 minutes prior to departure or border arrival, with public comments open through December 14, 2026.

Drewry Projects Suez Transits Reaching 80% Pre-Diversion Level by February 2027

On 12 October 2026, Drewry head of container research Simon Heaney published an analysis updating base case assumptions for global shipping routes, forecasting a phase-back of Suez transits reaching 80% of pre-diversion levels by February 2027, with carriers expected to retain remaining capacity on Cape of Good Hope routings for network resilience.

The analysis noted that carriers continue returning Asia-Europe container services to the Red Sea despite ongoing security threats, such as small-arms fire directed at CU Lines' 2,400 TEU vessel CUL Klang in the southern Red Sea.

Drewry's slot-cost comparative modeling indicates that when factoring in insurance premiums and canal toll costs, routing via Suez offers only marginal per-slot economic savings relative to routing via southern Africa, despite shaving two weeks off transit times and reducing vessel bunker consumption.

USTR Opens Public Consultation Ahead of 2027 USMCA Joint Review; CBP Proposes Informal Entry Reforms

On October 12, 2026, the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) launched a public consultation process ahead of the 2027 United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) joint review, requesting written comments by January 12, 2027, on implementation, compliance, competitiveness, investment, economic security, and responses to non-market practices.

Because the United States previously declined to confirm continuation of the agreement, annual joint reviews will occur until all parties agree to extend the agreement or termination occurs in 2036.

Simultaneously, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) proposed regulatory changes for shipments valued at $2,500 or less, including mandatory electronic filing for informal and mail entries, creation of an electronic mail entry type, and bond requirements for all such entries.

Drewry Blank Sailings Tracker Shows 5% East-West Cancellation Rate as Capacity Returns

Drewry's Container Capacity Insight report published on 12 October 2026 revealed that across major East-West trades, 34 blank sailings are scheduled from week 42 (12–18 October) to week 46 (9–15 November) out of 713 planned voyages, representing a 5% cancellation rate with 95% of scheduled sailings expected to operate.

Blank sailings are concentrated primarily on the Asia–North Europe/Mediterranean trade, accounting for 50% of cancellations, followed by Transpacific eastbound at 32% and Transatlantic at 18%.

The assessment notes that the phased resumption of services via the Suez Canal is reinjecting effective capacity into East-West trade networks, although operational adjustments and congestion continue to influence supply across routes.

ANAM Cancels 25 Customs Agent Patents in Tamaulipas Border Crossings

In its foreign trade and customs report issued on October 12, 2026, CMRE Group highlighted that the National Customs Agency of Mexico (ANAM) confirmed the formal cancellation of 25 customs agent patents in the state of Tamaulipas without detailing the specific administrative or legal causes.

The federative entity concentrates the largest number of customs patent revocations in Mexico, directly affecting the procedures and customs dispatch at the border crossings of Nuevo Laredo, Matamoros, Ciudad Reynosa, Tampico and Ciudad Miguel Alemán.

Canton Fair 2026: Importing to Mexico Phase by Phase Under New Tariff Framework

In view of the opening of the 140th Canton Fair in Guangzhou from October 15 to November 4, 2026 (with more than 32,000 exhibiting companies and more than 220,000 international buyers from 197 countries pre-registered), Mexican importers face the tariff framework derived from the decree published in the DOF on December 29, 2025 and in force since January 1, 2026, which taxes 1,463 tariff fractions with ad valorem rates from 5% to 50% for countries without a free trade agreement with Mexico, including China.

The levies impact purchases in the three phases of the event: electronics, machinery, hardware, vehicles and new energies (Phase 1: October 15 to 19); construction materials, furniture, decoration and kitchen (Phase 2: October 23 to 27); and textiles, clothing and footwear (Phase 3: October 31 to November 4).

For nationalization, importers are required to classify products under the LIGIE with the current rate, document the customs value for the staggered schedule of the Electronic Value Manifestation (MVE) and validate prior compliance with the mandatory Official Mexican Standards (NOM) for labeling and safety before customs clearance.

ArcelorMittal Expands Steelmaking and Mining Operations in Mexico

Global steel producer ArcelorMittal announced plans to increase its annual steel production capacity in Mexico from 3.7 million tonnes to nearly 5.3 million tonnes by 2029, according to statements by Victor Cairo, CEO of ArcelorMittal Mexico.

The company has restructured operations into three divisions: ore mining, long products, and flat products. In steelmaking, ArcelorMittal plans to modernize its continuous casting line and install new cranes to boost crude steel production capacity to 3.8 million tonnes per year and hot-rolled coil production to 2.5 million tonnes.

In mining, it is building a $180 million processing plant at the Las Truchas mining complex scheduled for mid-2027 to increase long products output by 500,000 tonnes to 1.5 million tonnes. Cairo noted that North American industrial integration creates added value despite trade uncertainties regarding Section 232 restrictions.

Cameintram Calls for Accelerating Port Modernization and Administrative Simplification Amid Nearshoring

On October 14, 2026, the Mexican Chamber of the Maritime Transport Industry (Cameintram), through its president José Manuel Urreta Ortega, pointed out that Mexico's maritime ports must maintain their pace of modernization towards 2027 to respond to the increase in foreign trade and the requirements of the relocation of supply chains (nearshoring).

Cameintram celebrated the proposal to increase by 50% the budgetary resources for the Articulation of Policies and Programs of the Maritime Port Sector in the Federation's Expenditure Budget Project (PPEF) 2027, assigned to the National Port System Administrations (ASIPONA) and the maritime authority.

Likewise, the organization urged the Legislative Power to ensure that said budgetary allocation is reflected directly in a real administrative simplification of procedures and in the technological modernization of the terminals.

U.S. Court of International Trade Ruling Opens Class-Action Path for IEEPA Tariff Refunds

On October 14, 2026, customs and trade logistics consultancy Metro Global reported on an October 8 ruling by the U.S. Court of International Trade that certified a class-action lawsuit for importers seeking refunds on tariffs previously imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).

The decision permits importers of record who paid invalidated duties between February 1, 2025 and February 19, 2026 to pursue recovery collectively without submitting separate individual lawsuits.

Out of approximately $166 billion collected under the tariffs, more than $100 billion has been processed through CBP mechanisms, but roughly $30 billion remains unrecovered. Importers must preserve entry summaries, proof of duty payments, and customs documentation, as potential appeals could defer refund disbursements into spring or summer 2027.

US HDG Exports Down 3.4 Percent in August 2026 from July

According to export data from the US Department of Commerce published on October 14, 2026, US exports of hot dip galvanized (HDG) sheets totaled 102,725 mt in August 2026, down 3.4 percent from July and up 1.0 percent from August 2025.

In value terms, monthly HDG exports totaled $158.1 million in August, compared to $160.9 million in July and $148.8 million in August 2025.

Mexico was the primary destination for US HDG shipments, taking 64,579 mt in August (compared to 69,064 mt in July and 57,191 mt in August 2025), followed by Canada with 37,754 mt. No other individual destination received 1,000 mt or more of US HDG exports during the month.

US Long Steel Exports Fall on Weaker Canada Shipments

US long carbon and alloy steel export volumes fell 7.4% month-on-month in August 2026 to 99,572 tonnes, according to data from the Department of Commerce's steel monitor.

The primary destination for US long steel exports was Mexico with 51,035 tonnes, followed by Canada with 40,352 tonnes and the United Kingdom with 1,122 tonnes.

Key long products exported in August included hot-rolled bars (27,617t), heavy structural shapes (18,259t), cold-finished bars (9,948t), light-shaped bars (8,106t), and tool steel (7,670t). Overall August long steel export volumes remained 6.6% higher year-on-year.

On Wednesday, 14 October 2026, the Baltic Dry Index compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange decreased by 134 points to 2,667 points, covering rates for transported dry bulk commodities including coal, grain, and iron ore.

USTR Invokes USMCA Rapid Response Mechanism Against Mexican Automotive Textile Plant Carolina Performance Fabrics

On October 13, 2026, the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) invoked the USMCA facility-specific Rapid Response Labor Mechanism (Annex 31-A) against Carolina Performance Fabrics, S.A. de C.V., an automotive textile manufacturer in Guanajuato, Mexico.

The action followed a September 10, 2026 petition filed by an affiliate of the Confederacion Central Nacional (COCENA) alleging interference with union activity, harassment, and unlawful dismissals.

USTR instructed the U.S. Department of the Treasury to direct U.S. Customs and Border Protection to suspend liquidation of all unliquidated customs entries of merchandise originating from the facility.

The measure creates indefinite open liability for importers, leaves customs bonds exposed, and stalls duty drawback claims and post-summary corrections. Mexico has 10 days to agree to a review and 45 days to conclude an investigation.

Mexico Pays Lower Tariffs Than China in the United States: Ebrard

On October 13, 2026, in the Chamber of Deputies, Secretary of Economy Marcelo Ebrard stated that Mexico pays an effective tariff rate lower than 3% in its trade with the United States, compared with the 22% rate faced by China under U.S. tariff policy measures.

Ebrard said Mexico remains the main exporter to the United States and is recording growth in sectors such as semiconductors and electronics despite the adverse trade environment.

He announced that he will present formal information and projections on the review of the Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (T-MEC).

During remarks on the T-MEC review and continuity process, he underscored that Mexico remains the main trading partner and exporter to the United States, with advances in strategic areas including semiconductors and electronic products despite trade restrictions.

Peninsula Releases Bunker Fuel Market Outlook Highlighting Supply Risk and Geopolitical Volatility

On October 13, 2026, marine energy supplier Peninsula released its Bunker Fuel Market Outlook for September 2026.

The report stated that global marine fuel markets continue to face upward volatility driven by geopolitical disruption and tightening supplies of refined petroleum products.

Peninsula noted that while shipping markets gained momentum in tanker and dry bulk segments due to strong trade flows, bunker recovery remains fragile as geopolitical disruptions continue to influence vessel routing, fuel availability, and freight markets across major bunkering hubs.

Regional Middle East crude exports rebounded to approximately 17 million barrels per day by late September—near the 2025 average—as higher volumes moved through the Strait of Hormuz and via ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman following earlier disruption to Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline.

Ebrard Confirms Appearance Date and Tariff Topics for Steel, Aluminum and Vehicles in T-MEC Review

On October 13, 2026, Secretary of Economy Marcelo Ebrard stated that Mexican goods face an effective tariff rate of less than 3% in trade with the United States, compared with 22% applicable to China, supporting competitiveness in sectors such as semiconductors and electronics.

Regarding the T-MEC process, Ebrard confirmed that he will appear before commissions of the Congress of the Union on Friday, October 16, 2026, to present the progress report on the treaty review and bilateral negotiation points.

Among priority matters on the agenda with the United States, he detailed that the 50% tariffs imposed on steel and aluminum, as well as the 25% levy on vehicles, remain under discussion.

Mexican exports to the United States market registered a monthly increase of 16.8%.

Mexico Heavy-Duty Vehicle Production and Exports Surge in September 2026 Driven by U.S. Pre-Buy Demand

On October 13, 2026, commercial freight vehicle data released by ANPACT and INEGI showed that Mexican manufacturers produced 15,181 heavy-duty vehicles in September 2026, a 121.4% surge compared with 6,857 units in September 2025.

Vehicle exports reached 12,707 units during the month, up 144.6% year-over-year from 5,196 units.

Rogelio Arzate, executive president of ANPACT, noted during an October news conference that cross-border shipment growth is primarily fueled by U.S. buyers accelerating equipment purchases and adjusting supply orders ahead of stricter U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) emissions standards taking effect in 2027.

This contrasts with sustained weakness in Mexico's domestic truck market.

Mexico Truck Exports Rise About 12% in First Nine Months of 2026 as U.S. Demand Remains Strong

On October 13, 2026, industry reports based on data from ANPACT and INEGI showed that Mexico exported 98,394 heavy-duty commercial vehicles during the first nine months of 2026, an increase of approximately 12% compared with the same period in 2025.

Freight vehicles accounted for 98,389 units of those shipments, a 12.1% year-over-year rise.

The United States absorbed 90,967 Mexican-manufactured heavy vehicles from January through September, a 9.6% year-over-year increase, representing approximately 92.5% of total Mexican commercial truck exports.

Manufacturers continue navigating regional tariffs and preparations for the USMCA review.

Ministry of Economy Rules Out Alterations to T-MEC and Ratifies Annual Review Scheme for Ten Years

On October 13, 2026, Secretary of Economy Marcelo Ebrard ruled out changes to the continuity of the T-MEC in light of the United States decision not to extend it automatically.

He confirmed that the agreed framework provides for a 10-year term subject to mandatory annual review and stated that no modifications to that format are foreseen.

Ebrard also confirmed his appearance on Friday, October 16, before the Joint Commissions of Economy, Trade and Competitiveness to detail progress and the negotiation strategy.

U.S. and Others Pledge Cooperation on Steel Trade Measures

Members of the Global Forum on Steel Excess Capacity (GFSEC), comprising over two dozen economies that account for more than half of global steel imports, pledged coordinated action against persistent global steel excess capacity.

The member countries stated that the global steel industry faces a crisis driven principally by non-market policies and practices originating outside GFSEC membership.

They agreed on a framework for collective trade remedies, transparency, and policy measures.

636.8 Million Pesos Invested in the Ports of Altamira and Tampico

According to the Second Labor Report of the Secretaría de Marina released on October 12, 2026, public and private investments totaling 636.8 million pesos are reported in the ports of Altamira and Tampico.

In Altamira, private resources allocated to terminals, infrastructure and equipment totaled 349.7 million pesos across six projects: Infraestructura Portuaria Mexicana (IPM) exercised 187.9 million pesos for the reconfiguration and expansion of its terminal; Huasteca Fuel Terminal allocated 58.8 million pesos for a terminal specialized in fuels; Inmobiliaria Portuaria de Altamira invested 39.5 million pesos in the expansion of 54.55 meters of marginal dock; Altamira Terminal Portuaria (ATP) executed 32.1 million pesos in expansion and reconfiguration works; Cooper T. Smith de México applied 21.6 million pesos in the acquisition and updating of heavy port equipment; and Terminal de LNG de Altamira channeled 9.8 million pesos in liquefied natural gas equipment.

In strategic infrastructure works in Altamira, construction of three breakwaters to protect the southern coastal littoral registered physical progress of 90%, and the Vía Ramal Poniente reported 40%.

This Week in International Trade: USTR Opens USMCA Review Consultation and CBP Tightens Compliance

On October 12, 2026, international trade regulatory updates highlighted critical cross-border developments.

The United States Trade Representative (USTR) launched a public consultation process ahead of the 2027 USMCA joint review, requesting public comments by January 12, 2027, covering implementation, compliance, competitiveness, investment, economic security, and non-market policies.

Concurrently, the Department of Commerce issued guidance clarifying CBP's assessment of U.S. content for Canadian and Mexican metal goods under Section 232, restricting the 25% duty strictly to non-U.S. value.

CBP has intensified compliance audits through data mining and analytics to identify tariff classification, customs valuation, and country of origin discrepancies, leading to a surge in Form CF-28 Requests for Information.

Container with 9.9 Million Counterfeit Cigarettes Seized at Lázaro Cárdenas Customs

On October 12, 2026, the National Customs Agency of Mexico (ANAM), in coordination with the Secretariat of the Navy (Marina), the Attorney General's Office (FGR) and the Secretariat of Security and Citizen Protection (SSPC), seized at the maritime customs of the port of Lázaro Cárdenas, Michoacán, a shipment of 9,948,000 pieces of counterfeit cigarettes contained in a container.

Detection of the illicit merchandise derived from customs intelligence work, risk analysis and documentary review of commercial antecedents.

The container and the cargo remained secured within the customs premises, and the FGR opened a criminal investigation file to determine responsibilities for irregularities in the entry of merchandise into national territory.

CCE: U.S. Business Supports Integral T-MEC Renewal and Tariff-Exempt Compliant Goods

The president of the Business Coordinating Council (CCE), José Medina Mora, pointed out that the business sector of the United States supports the preservation of free trade and the integral renewal of the Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (T-MEC), in opposition to schemes of annual reviews.

He supported that goods that comply with the agreement's regulations remain exempt from tariffs.

Medina Mora advanced that the tariff theme will form the priority axis of the fourth round of bilateral negotiations between Mexico and the United States, with special attention to the tariff measures that impact the automotive, steel and aluminum industries.

COMCE Noreste Proposes Measures to Streamline Cargo Transport in Mexico

On October 12, 2026, in Monterrey, Nuevo León, Javier Cendejas Meneses, president of the Mexican Council of Foreign Trade of the Northeast (COMCE Noreste), raised the need to implement operational facilitation measures to streamline cargo autotransport and reduce service times at maritime ports and customs without compromising security or the customs framework.

The initiative promotes advance procedures, clear operational rules, constant information exchange and contingency mechanisms.

It also calls for enabling alternative routes to contain logistical surcharges derived from delays in international supply chains.

Expert Outlook

Core judgment
Mexico is structurally bifurcating its China-facing trade posture: tightening origin-blind provisional antidumping duties and undervaluation enforcement to protect domestic producers while selectively zeroing auto-parts tariffs for five years to accelerate nearshoring assembly. The provisional USD 68.60-per-piece duty on Chinese adult bicycles that applies regardless of origin or transshipment from 13 October 2026 for six months raises compliance friction and landed costs on consumer durables for FCL importers even as freight GRIs and port dwell costs compound, shifting the competitive edge toward authorized automotive assemblers over general merchandise traders.

Drivers decoded
Hard facts show the Secretaría de Economía continuing the antidumping investigation launched after the April 2025 petition by domestic bicycle manufacturers and imposing an origin-blind provisional countervailing duty of USD 68.60 per piece on adult bicycles (HS 8712.00.05) effective 13 October 2026. Chinese units were marketed 27 percent cheaper than national product in 2024, prompting Mexican producers to cut prices 4 percent to defend share, production and employment.

Simultaneously the presidential decree published 13 October eliminates the 10 percent tariff on HS 9803.00.01 auto parts for five years from 14 October 2026, but exclusively for terminal automotive companies holding fiscal deposit authorization. The measure covers all origins including China and is framed to cut SKD/CKD installation costs in line with Plan Mexico and the Economic Sectoral Program 2025-2030.

On the enforcement side the Senate approved Customs Law reforms on 13 October that scrap the 50 percent undervaluation threshold for precautionary embargo, empower ANAM to define the goods list and valuation percentages before 1 January 2027 entry into force, and tighten cash-deposit substitution rules above 20 percent undervaluation.

Soft signals reinforce an enforcement-first posture at Secretaría de Economía and ANAM/SAT after earlier customs personnel purges that already canceled rail internal transits, while the federal government pursues selective liberalization only for authorized assemblers. The resulting interest-power-cognition alignment protects domestic bicycle makers through nationwide SHCP collection of the provisional duty, advances nearshoring targets via targeted tariff relief, and strengthens tax collection against undervaluation leakage—leaving general FCL importers of consumer durables to absorb higher compliance and freight costs.

Chain effects
The origin-blind provisional antidumping duty of USD 68.60 per piece on Chinese adult bicycles under HS 8712.00.05, effective 13 October 2026 for six months and covering definitive as well as temporary imports regardless of routing, forces immediate duty settlement or guarantee on FCL entries. This lifts per-unit landed costs and inventory holding expenses for Mexican bicycle importers throughout the provisional window.

Senate approval of the Customs Law reform eliminating the 50 percent undervaluation embargo threshold under article 151, with force from 1 January 2027 once ANAM issues the goods list and valuation percentages, expands PAMA exposure. Cash-deposit substitution becomes mandatory above 20 percent undervaluation, elevating clearance friction and potential abandonment costs for general merchandise FCL from China.

CMA CGM’s USD 1,000 GRI on Asia-Mexico loadings from 15 October 2026, layered on existing Maersk PSS, directly raises ocean freight on FCL boxes into Manzanillo and Lázaro Cárdenas. Documented truck turnarounds of 12 hours 50 minutes at Manzanillo and 11 hours 58 minutes at Lázaro Cárdenas already generate roughly USD 39.6 million in daily operating costs across the network, compounding demurrage and storage and compressing margins for non-automotive importers.

Authorized terminal automotive assemblers holding fiscal deposit authorization emerge as the clear beneficiaries: the five-year zero tariff on HS 9803.00.01 parts from all origins, including China, lowers SKD/CKD installation costs under Plan Mexico and widens their cost advantage over general merchandise traders.

Scenarios and signposts
Key remaining unknowns include ANAM’s publication of the undervaluation goods list and valuation percentages before the 1 January 2027 Customs Law entry into force; the final determination or possible extension of the six-month provisional antidumping duty on Chinese adult bicycles that expires around 13 April 2027; whether the AMTI request produces any restoration of Manzanillo and Lázaro Cárdenas rail internal transits to Ferrovalle; follow-on GRI or PSS announcements by CMA CGM or peer carriers after the 15 October loading window; and outcomes of the Economy Secretary’s 16 October congressional appearance on T-MEC steel, aluminum and vehicle tariff talks. The SAT Manifestación de Valor Electrónica phased rollout is already confirmed to begin 1 November 2026, with mandatory compliance for IMMEX temporary imports on 1 January 2027 and for definitive imports on 15 January 2027.

Baseline (highly likely): The provisional bicycle duty remains in force through April 2027; the auto-parts zero tariff applies smoothly for authorized assemblers; MVE proceeds on the announced November and January dates; Manzanillo and Lázaro Cárdenas dwells stay elevated; Asia-Mexico FCL rates hold the October GRI level. Landed costs for general Chinese consumer goods rise while automotive FCL benefits. Trigger: no early termination of the provisional duty, ANAM issues the goods list on schedule, and no major port-labor or weather disruption.

Optimistic (may): The bicycle investigation concludes with a lower or zero definitive duty; the ANAM goods list is narrowly drawn; rail internal transits are partially restored; freight GRIs are partially rolled back after blank-sailing capacity cuts. FCL importers see moderated compliance and ocean-cost pressure. Trigger: final antidumping determination favors importers or excludes more categories, the AMTI request is granted, and blank sailings stabilize rates.

Pessimistic (unlikely): The provisional bicycle duty converts to a higher definitive duty; the ANAM undervaluation list broadly covers consumer durables; port dwells worsen with the continued transit ban; additional GRIs or Panama surcharges layer on. Non-automotive FCL China-Mexico lanes face sharp cost and clearance spikes. Trigger: domestic producers win the final antidumping case, ANAM expands the embargo list aggressively, and hurricane or further customs purge saturates Manzanillo and Lázaro Cárdenas.