Strait of Hormuz Reopened Yet War Risk Premiums Stay Elevated, 40ft Rates Hit 18-Month High of $3,969 – Mexican FCL Importers Must Act Now

2026-06-22 | Sources: Reuters, Drewry, New Straits Times | Urgency: P1

The Strait of Hormuz has reopened, yet war risk insurance premiums remain at elevated levels. Combined with 6 blank sailings on the Transpacific and rising bunker costs, the Drewry World Container Index reached an 18-month high of $3,969 per 40ft, with Shanghai-Los Angeles 40ft rates up 10% to $5,142 and Shanghai-New York up 15% to $6,769. Canada imposed a 10% global tariff on canned vegetables effective June 21 (excluding US and Mexican origin), while Mexican customs will enforce stricter data requirements and real-time visibility from 2026. These factors are directly increasing landed costs and clearance delays for FCL importers across food processing and general commodity sectors.

Strait Reopening and Tight Capacity – Your Space and Insurance Costs Are Rising Simultaneously

Although Iran had announced closure of the Strait of Hormuz on June 21 in response to regional tensions, the strait has now reopened. The prior closure slowed vessel passages including VLCCs carrying 2 million barrels of crude each. War risk premiums are expected to stay high despite reopening, with normal rates at 0.15% ($150,000-$225,000 per voyage) rising to 5% ($5-7.5 million) during crises. This affects energy flows and indirectly raises fuel costs for Mexican FCL shipments.

Meanwhile, 6 Transpacific and 3 Asia-Europe blank sailings, frontloading ahead of US tariff changes in July, and the July 1 bunker adjustment have driven spot rates higher. The Drewry World Container Index rose 12% to $3,969 per 40ft. Specific increases include Shanghai-Los Angeles 40ft to $5,142 (up 10%), Shanghai-New York 40ft to $6,769 (up 15%), and Shanghai-Rotterdam 40ft to $4,342 (up 15%). These changes are immediately raising delivered costs for Asia-Mexico FCL cargoes.

Canadian Tariffs and Mexican Customs Reforms – Your Compliance Window Is Tightening Fast

From June 21, Canada applied a 10% tariff on canned vegetables globally, exempting imports from the US and Mexico. Mexican food importers must review T-MEC certificates of origin and import declarations to prevent SAT clearance delays or penalties.

Additionally, Mexican customs will impose stricter data requirements, real-time visibility, and stronger enforcement starting in 2026. This raises the bar for all FCL movements and may extend clearance times. Importers should prepare complete documentation well in advance to minimize operational disruptions.

Macro Slowdown and Low-Carbon Fuel Framework – Long-Term Trends Are Shifting Import Planning

Private investment in Mexico has fallen for seven consecutive quarters, business confidence has deteriorated, and the economy grew only 0.6% in the first five months of 2026. This caps FCL import volume growth at half its nearshoring and T-MEC potential. Mid-to-large importers should assess trade volumes under this sustained low-growth environment.

Verra has released VM0053 methodology for Alternative Low-Carbon Fuels for Shipping v1.0, providing a framework to quantify emission reductions from fuels such as green ammonia and e-fuels. While it does not immediately alter FCL transit times or costs, it enables future financing for cleaner marine fuels that could stabilize long-term bunker price volatility.

• 40ft Rates: $3,969 (WCI, ↑12%)
• Shanghai-LA 40ft: $5,142 (↑10%)
• Shanghai-NY 40ft: $6,769 (↑15%)
• War Risk Crisis Premium: 5% ($5M-$7.5M per transit)
• Canada Canned Vegetable Tariff: 10% (effective June 21)

Expert Analysis
I forecast that war risk premiums will remain elevated for the next 1-2 months even after the Strait of Hormuz reopening, continuing to pressure fuel surcharges and overall FCL landed costs. In the price dimension, 40ft rates have already risen notably; expect additional $488 per FEU if fuel doubles. On costs, calculate demurrage and documentation revision expenses now – the baseline $150k-$225k insurance per voyage is broken by crisis rates up to $5-7.5M, with non-compliance risking tens of thousands in penalties. Lead time impact from blank sailings and new customs rules could add 3-7 days of clearance delay; backlog cleanup may take several months, similar to the 6-month Covid recovery. You should buffer at least 10 extra days for June and July orders. For clearance, prepare detailed real-time data immediately; 2026 rules will raise inspection rates – reviewing all pedimentos 30 days early can halve delay risk. On compliance, update T-MEC certificates of origin before the June 21 tariff trigger; full adherence to data rules delivers lower inspection rates as a competitive edge, while non-compliance penalties may reach 5-10% of cargo value. Capacity tightness scores 8/10; with 6 Transpacific blank sailings you must book 21-28 days ahead to avoid roll risk. In risk, the worst case is fragile truce leading to renewed disruption plus Mexico’s 0.6% growth, so maintain 2-month inventory buffer and track weekly premium changes. Alternatives remain limited, but evaluate West Coast port routing trade-offs; switching requires comparing added land costs against insurance increases.