Mexico Pacific Ports
Hurricane Polo Weakens to Category 4; Manzanillo Restricted to Vessels of 500 GT or More
As of September 24, 2026, Hurricane Polo has weakened to Category 4 off Mexico's Pacific coast. The Port of Manzanillo is restricted to vessels of at least 500 gross tonnage, allowing container ships to continue operating while barring smaller craft. Navigation restrictions for smaller vessels remain in force at Acapulco, Puerto Marqués, Zihuatanejo and Lázaro Cárdenas.
On the night of Wednesday, September 23, 2026, the National Meteorological Service (SMN) and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) reported that Hurricane Polo reintensified to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale at 18:40 hours. The cyclone's center was located 235 kilometers south-southwest of Zihuatanejo, Guerrero, and 425 kilometers south-southeast of the port of Manzanillo, Colima, with maximum sustained winds of 260 km/h, gusts of 310 km/h and northwest displacement at 9 km/h.
The prevention zone for hurricane effects is maintained from Técpan de Galeana, Guerrero, to Punta San Telmo, Michoacán, and the watch zone extends to Playa Pérula, Jalisco. Forecasts call for torrential rains of 150 to 250 mm in Michoacán and Guerrero, and intense rains of 75 to 150 mm in Colima, affecting navigation and maritime approaches to the main ports of the Mexican Pacific.
On September 23, 2026, the Ministry of the Navy, through the Mexican Navy and as the National Maritime Authority, announced precautionary port closures on the Mexican Pacific coast. At that time Hurricane Polo was Category 4, located 128 nautical miles (237 kilometers) southwest of Acapulco, Guerrero, and 280 nautical miles (519 kilometers) southeast of Manzanillo, Colima. Total closure to all types of vessels was ordered in Acapulco and Zihuatanejo (Guerrero), and closure to minor vessels in Manzanillo (Colima), Puerto Marqués (Guerrero), Lázaro Cárdenas (Michoacán) and Puerto Escondido (Oaxaca), due to rains, electrical storms, strong wind gusts and high waves. Mexico's Navy also reported that the storm maintained sustained winds of up to 155 miles per hour off the coast.
On September 24, 2026, Mexico's Navy restricted the Port of Manzanillo to vessels of at least 500 gross tonnage starting Tuesday morning and instructed docked ships to reinforce mooring lines. Manzanillo and Lázaro Cárdenas serve as major Pacific gateways connecting Asian ocean shipping to Mexico's inland industrial supply chains. Prolonged weather disruptions risk delaying imported manufacturing components and consumer goods.
ICTSI Signs $1 Billion Loan to Fund Contecon Manzanillo Phase 3B Expansion
International Container Terminal Services Inc (ICTSI) signed a $1 billion, 10-year term loan facility with BDO Unibank on September 23, 2026, to support its global terminal expansion programs. The company is maintaining a $740 million capital expenditure budget for 2026 that includes the Phase 3B expansion of its Contecon Manzanillo container terminal in Mexico, to increase handling capacity for larger Transpacific vessels.
On August 20 and 21, 2026, Contecon Manzanillo achieved an operational record by evacuating an average of 2,000 import containers by road transport every 24 hours, moving nearly 4,000 containers by land over two days. The result was made possible by expanding cargo withdrawal windows and coordinating with Manzanillo Customs under the "24/2" scheme, which maintains 24 continuous hours of customs operations from Thursday to Friday. The company projects weekly road transport evacuations to reach approximately 9,800 containers, a 20% increase over its 2025 weekly average.
Contecon expanded its terminal infrastructure with the arrival of five new rubber-tyred gantry (RTG) cranes delivered aboard the vessel Lan Hai Hong Yun from Busan, South Korea, to boost equipment capacity and modernize operations at Mexico's primary Pacific port. The terminal handled 164,297 TEUs in August 2026 while maintaining the leading position in container throughput.
According to the Average Times Indicator of Motor Transport in Ports (ITPAP), the average time to enter, pick up import goods and exit the port rose from 5:34:16 hours in June to 12:50:27 hours one month later. Customs time increased from 2:43:36 to 6:11:30 hours, maneuvers from 1:12:56 to 2:45:48 hours, and waiting time from 1:37:43 to 3:53:08 hours.
ICTSI reported a 16% year-over-year increase in first-half cargo throughput to 8.12 million TEU and 27% revenue growth to $1.92 billion.
US-Mexico Trade Policies
Mexico Customs Law Reform Draws Industry Concerns and Government Responses
Industry representatives, CAAAREM customs brokers, academics and foreign-trade advisors met on September 23, 2026 with the Finance and Public Credit Commission of Mexico's Chamber of Deputies to review a Customs Law reform proposal.
The Federal Executive submitted the initiative on September 8 as part of the 2027 Economic Package.
The proposal would empower customs authorities ANAM and SAT to apply an immediate precautionary embargo whenever the declared value of imported merchandise differs from the price estimated by the authority, and would eliminate the 50% threshold.
Productive sectors warned that customs opinions and reviews can take between one week and one month.
Direct detention costs would run between 4,000 and 14,000 pesos per day per unit.
Extended container use would add surcharges of 130 to 270 dollars per day, along with penalties for production-line stoppages.
CAAAREM president José Ignacio Zaragoza Ambrosi proposed replacing the immediate precautionary embargo with a temporary hold subject to fixed deadlines: 24 hours to notify, 5 business days to substantiate value, and 72 hours to resolve.
He also proposed limiting elimination of the threshold exclusively to finished consumer goods and sensitive goods, and excluding intermediate inputs and fixed assets of the maquiladora industry (IMMEX), the automotive sector and electronics.
ANAM head Héctor Alonso Romero Gutiérrez clarified that the reform will not modify the temporary import regimes used by productive chains such as the IMMEX program and the automotive sector, and that IMMEX will not be affected.
Gabriel Padilla, director general of the INA, documented the case of a company whose goods remained detained for six months after it had paid the assessed duties and surcharges.
Representatives of customs brokerage firms and the Latin American Confederation of Customs Agents expressed concern over weaker corporate liquidity and possible severe congestion at Mexican ports and customs, including the Port of Manzanillo and Mexico City International Airport (AIFA).
The Commission agreed to hold direct working sessions among business representatives, ANAM, SAT and SHCP.
US and Mexico Postpone Fourth Round of USMCA Review Talks
The United States and Mexico postponed the fourth round of bilateral negotiations for the USMCA (T-MEC) review from September to October 2026.
On September 23, 2026, the Undersecretary of Foreign Trade of Mexico's Ministry of Economy, Luis Rosendo Gutiérrez Romano, informed the 5th Mexico-United States Binational Convention that the delay follows adjustments in the United States government agenda for a summit with China's head of state and the G20 meeting.
On September 24, 2026, reports confirmed that U.S. authorities requested the postponement because the Chinese head of state's visit to Washington took priority.
Both countries agreed to postpone the fourth round and will announce new dates in the coming weeks.
Mexico's Ministry of Economy reported on September 22, 2026 that Mexico and the United States held 52 bilateral technical meetings during the first seven months of 2026 in the framework of the USMCA review.
The meetings addressed economic security, rules of origin, intellectual property, trade barriers and measures under Section 232.
The Ministry highlighted that the Mexican government defended the interests of the national productive sector.
Mexico succeeded in keeping 85% of its steel, aluminum and automobile exports to the United States free of tariffs against measures imposed under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 and the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).
During ongoing USMCA joint review discussions, the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) has proposed raising the regional value content (RVC) requirement for vehicles from 75% to 82%.
USTR also demands that 50% of the total value of every vehicle produced in the USMCA region originate specifically from the United States.
Mexico seeks to reduce Section 232 tariffs applied to steel from 50% to 25% and requests a rate lower than 15% for vehicles.
On September 23, 2026, Luis Rosendo Gutiérrez announced at the binational business convention that Mexico formally requested a tariff lower than 15% for its automobile exports to the United States in the USMCA review negotiations.
The United States agenda emphasizes tighter controls on investments and components from Asia, especially from China, to avoid trade triangulation in the region.
From January to July 2026, the United States imported automobiles with a customs value of 99.348 billion dollars.
Mexico ranked as the main supplier with 21.600 billion dollars, followed by Japan with 21.165 billion dollars, South Korea with 18.875 billion dollars, Canada with 12.878 billion dollars and Germany with 10.605 billion dollars.
An analysis of World Trade Organization (WTO) trade profiles showed that Mexico has a tariff cushion to raise import taxes against Asian countries without a commercial treaty, primarily China.
In 2026, Mexico applies an average Most Favored Nation (MFN) tariff of 11.1%, compared with 8.5% in 2025, after raising tariffs on 1,463 tariff fractions from countries without an agreement.
Mexico maintains a consolidated average tariff ceiling of 36.2% before the WTO.
This difference allows the Mexican government to evaluate new tariff increases to contain Asian imports and inputs and respond to United States pressure against commercial triangulation ahead of the USMCA review, without violating its maximum WTO commitments.
More News
China Expands Precursor Export Controls Ahead of High-Level China-U.S. Talks
On September 22, 2026, China's Ministry of Commerce and four other government agencies covering licensing, policing, emergency management, customs inspections, and pharmaceutical regulation issued an order that took effect immediately, adding two piperidone derivatives—drug precursors linked to fentanyl—to its export permit list.
The order requires export permits for these two additional piperidone derivative precursor chemicals shipped to Mexico, the United States, and Canada. Shipments to destinations outside USMCA are unaffected.
This order increases the total number of precursor chemicals subject to China's North American export permit regime to 18.
The measure introduces new compliance documentation and permit requirements, adding export licensing and customs compliance requirements for Mexican chemical and pharmaceutical importers, amid broader Mexico-China trade and tariff scrutiny.
On September 23, 2026, five Chinese central government agencies expanded export permit requirements for precursor chemicals shipped to the United States, Mexico, and Canada by adding two chemical intermediates used in fentanyl-related production (and their salts), bringing the total list of controlled precursor substances for these three designated countries to 18.
Under the regulations effective September 22, 2026, exporters shipping any of the 18 listed chemicals to Mexico, the US, or Canada must apply for official export permits, introducing tighter oversight and licensing requirements for chemical trade.
Second Resolution of Modifications to the RGCE 2026 on NICO, SEA Reactivation and Electronic Value Manifestation Enters into Force
On September 23, 2026, the Second Resolution of Modifications to the General Rules of Foreign Trade (RGCE) for 2026 and its Annexes 1, 2 and 22 entered into force, published by the Tax Administration Service (SAT) in the Official Gazette of the Federation on September 22, 2026.
The resolution modifies rule 1.4.12 to specify the procedure by which customs brokers and importers suspended in the Electronic Customs System (SEA) for inaccurate declaration of the Commercial Identification Number (NICO) can disprove the cause or present a customs guarantee account rectifying the pedimento through form 20/LA, setting a maximum period of five days for the authority to resolve.
The Eleventh Transitory provision ratifies that the transitional period for the previous Value Manifestation scheme ends on September 30, 2026, with electronic transmission via format E2 becoming mandatory as of October 1, 2026.
Format E15 (Information on contracts associated with the Value Manifestation) is introduced. Its use is optional until December 31, 2026 and will be required as of 2027.
Mexico Requires Prior Permit and Raises Tariff to 156% for Sugar Imports
On September 23, 2026, Carlos Seoane Castro, president of the National Chamber of the Sugar and Alcohol Industry (CNIAA), announced that starting from September 28, 2026 it will be mandatory to have the Prior Import Permit issued by the Ministry of Economy to carry out the customs clearance of sugar and food preparations with high sugar content, requiring laboratory analysis to determine their real tariff classification.
The import tariff on sugar went from a fixed quota of 360 dollars per ton to an ad valorem levy of 156% on the value of the product, in response to the decree published in the Official Gazette of the Federation on May 28 to combat undervaluation and smuggling that caused estimated losses of 55,000 million pesos.
KOBC KCCI and SCFI Freight Indices Rise Driven by Americas Demand While Europe Rates Decline
On September 23, 2026, the Korea Ocean Business Corporation (KOBC) reported that the KOBC Container Composite Index (KCCI) reached 4,760 points as of September 21, up 106 points (2.3%) week-on-week, while the Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) rose 0.70% to 3,687.83 points.
Americas trade rates rose due to pre-Chinese National Holiday shipping demand and port delays from Panama Canal draft restrictions and typhoons.
European and Mediterranean route rates declined as return-voyage Suez Canal usage expanded, reaching 25-47% in September according to Sea-Intelligence data.
Materiality Test: Mexico's New Requirement for Mineral Exporters
Mexico's Tax Administration Service (SAT) and Mexican Customs (Aduanas) have intensified supply-chain tax materiality scrutiny for mineral exporters, concentrate shippers, and refiners operating through ports such as Manzanillo and Lázaro Cárdenas.
Detentions at ports can occur if contractor invoices fail materiality audits.
Exporters are implementing real-time per-lot documentation files, REPSE and AML screening for site contractors, and pre-clearance customs valuation reviews to reconcile declared transaction values, transfer prices, and benchmark metal prices prior to filing pedimentos.
The Charts That Explain Shipping's Extraordinary Decade
On September 24, 2026, Splash247 cited market data from Clarksons and Braemar analyzing global shipping charter and freight indices during the ongoing Middle East conflict.
Clarksons' cross-sector ClarkSea Index reached $64,569 per day, standing 27% above its previous historical record set in 2007, with strong earnings across Very Large Gas Carriers (VLGCs), dry bulkers, containerships, and car carriers.
VLCC spot earnings averaged $643,000 per day.
Braemar reported that geopolitical disruptions—including rerouting, sanctions, port congestion, closed waterways, and ship-to-ship transfers—have rendered global freight demand significantly less price-sensitive, particularly within the oil tanker segment.
Trade Fraud Enforcement: What Professionals Need to Know
Following Executive Order 14411 to strengthen customs enforcement, the interagency Trade Fraud Task Force created by the U.S. Department of Justice and Department of Homeland Security released a resource guide outlining compliance rules for importers of record (IORs), customs brokers, and logistics professionals.
Enforcement priorities center on revenue protection through preventing tariff and duty evasion, stopping counterfeit or non-compliant product imports, and blocking forced-labor goods.
The guide highlights heightened customs enforcement scrutiny on Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS) classification, country of origin declarations, and IOR identity verification.
USMCA Rules of Origin and Tariff Exemption Standards for Appliance Manufacturing in Mexico
On September 23, 2026, manufacturing advisory firm Tetakawi outlined customs duty rules and USMCA origin requirements for Mexican appliance exports into the United States.
Electrical appliances manufactured in Mexico require a 50% Regional Value Content (RVC) under the net cost method or 60% under the transaction value method to qualify for duty-free status under USMCA.
Meeting USMCA origin rules exempts Mexican appliance exports from the 10% Section 122 import surcharge effective February 2026.
However, Section 232 tariffs imposing a 50% duty on steel and aluminum content apply to all appliance imports regardless of USMCA status or origin, adding approximately $300 million in tariff costs to manufacturer Whirlpool in 2025 alone.
Domestic expansion commitments include Mabe allocating $668 million across 15 factories through 2027, Whirlpool investing $250 million including $150 million for its Ramos Arizpe plant, BSH opening a $260 million refrigerator factory in Monterrey, and LG investing $100 million in Reynosa.
How Would US Diesel Export Restriction Impact Tanker Shipping Rates?
On September 23, 2026, Lloyd's List reported on potential US restrictions or a ban on US seaborne diesel exports, which average 1.4 million barrels per day (nearly one-fifth of global seaborne diesel volumes).
According to Fearnley Securities analysis, a US diesel export curb would cause an abrupt collapse in MR product tanker demand and rates in the Atlantic basin, while boosting LR product tanker rates in the Pacific and raising Asian diesel margins.
Higher Asian diesel margins would allow refiners to absorb elevated crude transport costs on VLCCs. Concurrently, increased US domestic crude availability would support transatlantic Aframax rates.
Separately, the Baltic Exchange West Africa-China VLCC rate index stood at $509,327 per day on September 23, 2026, down 3% from its all-time high set on September 21.
New Report: US Imports Fell 4.5% in Year After Liberation Day Tariffs
A Descartes Datamyne report analyzing U.S. Census and bill-of-lading data from May 2025 through April 2026 shows that U.S. total imports declined 4.5% and ocean containerized imports fell 4.3% in the 12 months following reciprocal tariffs.
During this period, trade shifted away from China, while Mexico extended its lead as the largest U.S. import source with a 6.6% increase in imports, compared to a 10.6% decline in Canada-origin imports.
The report notes that following the U.S. Supreme Court's February 2026 decision invalidating IEEPA tariffs, U.S. imports rebounded 9% year-over-year in April 2026.
However, importers and logistics operators face continued compliance friction from Section 232 steel, aluminum, auto, and auto parts duties, as well as Section 122 and Section 301 trade actions.
Descartes Datamyne Report Tracks Sourcing Shifts to Mexico and Asia After Tariffs
On September 23, 2026, FreightWaves reported on a Descartes Datamyne analysis of U.S. Census and bill-of-lading data covering May 2025 through April 2026.
Total U.S. imports dropped 4.5% and ocean containerized imports fell 4.3% in the 12 months following reciprocal tariffs.
U.S. imports from China contracted by 40.4%, dropping China from the second to third largest U.S. import source.
Imports from Taiwan, China grew 60.6% and Vietnam imports expanded 47.8%, elevating both into the top five U.S. import sources, while India recorded a 1.5% gain to enter the top ten.
Mexico expanded U.S. import volume by 6.6%, maintaining its position as the top U.S. import source.
The U.S. monthly goods trade deficit narrowed to $20.4 billion in October 2025 before recording $73.3 billion in June 2026.
Mexico-US Border Crossings Still Face Frictions for Trucking
Cross-border motor freight between the United States and Mexico continues to face operational friction and crossing delays, particularly for northbound freight entering Mexico from the U.S.
Data from the General Directorate of Federal Motor Transport (DGAF) and Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) indicates that 3,253,654 truck crossings occurred between January and May 2026, with Nuevo Laredo accounting for 1,295,848 crossings (nearly 40% of total volume).
Transport operators highlighted that imports into Mexico require extensive documentation, non-tariff barrier compliance, and complex inspections compared to southbound movements.
The 4 Priorities for Border Trade Between Mexico and the United States
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs (SRE) of Mexico and the U.S. Department of State established four priorities for U.S.-Mexico border trade following a binational meeting.
Between January and July 2026, bilateral trade in goods reached $588,524 million, with 75.6% of trade transported by truck (65% Mexican exports and 35% U.S. exports), growing 19.4% year-over-year.
The strategic priorities focus on joint cargo inspections, expanding non-intrusive inspection capabilities, technological modernization of customs operations, and operational coordination to enhance logistics security and competitiveness.
Spain Enacts Supplier-Based Decarbonisation Rules for Marine Fuel as Rotterdam Bunkering Volumes Shift
On September 23, 2026, PortXchange reported that Spain enacted Royal Decree 611/2026, placing a binding greenhouse gas reduction trajectory on marine fuel suppliers for domestic cabotage climbing from 6.5% in 2027 to 33% in 2040.
Meanwhile, Rotterdam bunker sales fell by 648,399 tonnes in Q1 2026 to their lowest level since 2009 after the Netherlands imposed similar supplier decarbonisation rules on January 1, 2026, creating a $20–$25 per tonne compliance price premium in Rotterdam over neighboring un-regulated ports.
Proposed US Diesel Export Ban Threatens Mexico's Fuel Supply
A proposed U.S. ban on distillate fuel oil exports poses supply chain risks for Mexico, which relies on the U.S. for over 40% of its national diesel supply (288.5 Mb/d).
Energy analysts warn that potential export restrictions would elevate freight transport costs and create operational bottlenecks across Mexican cross-border logistics and manufacturing networks while domestic refining capacity at the Olmeca complex is ramped up.
BIMCO: Caribbean Basin Crude Oil and Heavy Product Exports Jump 45%
On September 24, 2026, BIMCO reported in its Shipping Number of the Week that seaborne exports of crude oil and heavy products from the Caribbean Basin increased by 234 million barrels year-on-year (according to Signal Ocean data), equivalent to an additional 880,000 barrels per day (bpd) and a 45% jump compared to 2025.
Adjusting for Bahamas transshipments, net exports added 210 million barrels (790,000 bpd), making the region the largest contributor of new crude barrels to the dirty tanker market year-to-date and expanding its global export market share from 3.9% in 2025 to 6.1%.
Suezmaxes absorbed 48% of the extra barrels (exclusively benefiting from Guyana's expansion), while LR2s and Aframaxes captured 29% and 14% respectively (participating in Venezuelan growth).
Average sailing distances for Caribbean Basin exports fell nearly 10%, while overall tonne-mile demand rose 31% year-on-year, making the region the 8th largest export area globally.
Pacific Ports Drive 3.4% Growth in Container Movement in Mexico Between January and August 2026
According to data from the Secretariat of the Navy (Semar) released on September 24, 2026, Mexican ports moved 6,512,648 TEU between January and August 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.4%.
Pacific ports concentrated 5,003,537 TEU, with a year-on-year growth of 7.1%, driven by the port of Manzanillo with 2,824,839 TEU (an increase of 11.0%) and the port of Lázaro Cárdenas with 1,805,022 TEU (an increase of 4.9%).
In contrast, Gulf of Mexico ports fell 7.1% to 1,509,111 TEU, with declines in Veracruz (802,184 TEU, -5.6%) and Altamira (579,023 TEU, -5.3%).
National maritime import cargo grew 3.2%, while maritime exports retreated 11.2% year-on-year.
IUMI President Clarifies War Risk Insurance Notice of Cancellation Mechanisms
On September 24, 2026, International Union of Marine Insurance (IUMI) President Frédéric Denèfle addressed the President's Workshop at the IUMI annual conference in Rotterdam, clarifying the operational mechanisms of marine war risk insurance during heightened geopolitical tensions.
Denèfle addressed market misconceptions regarding coverage cancellations, explaining that when risk escalates significantly, insurers issuing a Notice of Cancellation do not terminate coverage, but rather use the mechanism to reassess the risk environment and reinstate policy terms on adjusted conditions and pricing to maintain global trade support.
Cosco Expands Logistics Strategy in Mexico with Land Services and Decarbonization Focus
On September 23, 2026, Cosco Shipping Lines Mexico announced an expansion of its logistics strategy in Mexico, focusing on door-to-door services, land transportation, digitalization, and decarbonization.
Mateo Cepeda, Senior Sales & Export Manager, stated that 100% of Cosco's transpacific services in the region call at the Port of Manzanillo, while other itineraries include Ensenada and Lázaro Cárdenas before continuing to South America, with Chancay serving as a new hub for connections with Asia.
Mexico accounts for over half of Far East import cargo volume in West Coast Latin America, operating with a structural trade imbalance of 4 to 5 import containers for every export container.
Cosco has expanded its Mexican workforce to over 140 employees with owned offices in Manzanillo and Ensenada, commercial presence in Monterrey, Querétaro, and Guadalajara, and is deploying methanol-powered vessels and the GSBN blockchain platform to accelerate cargo release.
Mexico Prepares Limited Preferential Trade Talks with India Amid U.S. Tariff Pressure
On September 23, 2026, El Financiero reported that Mexico and India are preparing formal negotiations to conclude a limited preferential trade agreement, aimed at reducing barriers and diversifying markets in the face of United States tariff policy.
Bilateral trade between both countries stood at around 8,000 million dollars during the 2025-2026 period.
Mexico seeks to expand access to the Indian market for products such as tequila, fruits and automotive components, while India requests that Mexico reduce tariff barriers for automobiles, auto parts and steel.
The initiative arises after the tariff increase of between 5% and 50% imposed by the government of President Claudia Sheinbaum on steel products and goods from Asian countries without a free trade agreement.
It is expected that the terms of negotiation will be signed soon to conclude the conversations in December 2026.
New Container Shipping Route Launched Between East China's Jiangsu and Mexico
On Wednesday, September 23, 2026, a cargo ship carrying 524 special containers departed from Jiangyin port in East China's Jiangsu Province for the Port of Manzanillo in Mexico, officially launching a direct container shipping route linking Jiangsu and Mexico.
The direct route features a transit time of approximately 22 days, significantly reducing transit times and logistics costs compared to traditional transshipment routes via Shanghai or Ningbo.
Most of the special containers on this maiden voyage feature a lowered-profile design to meet height restrictions in local railway tunnels and under bridges in Mexico, enabling direct intermodal transfer between railway flatcars and truck chassis for end-to-end road and rail intermodal logistics across North America.
Eight Nations Declare Disruption of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb Maritime Transit Unacceptable
On September 23, 2026, South Korea's Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that representatives from eight countries—South Korea, Australia, France, Germany, Japan, New Zealand, Poland, and the United Kingdom—issued a joint statement following a September 22 meeting in New York during the 81st UN General Assembly.
The statement declared that any disruption of maritime sea lanes, including the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, through force, threats, or the imposition of unlawful tolls or transit conditions, is unacceptable and threatens global security and economic stability.
The eight nations pledged to stand together in upholding the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and maintaining freedom of navigation.
Alphaliner Revives 27,500-TEU Gigamax Concept as Global Container Orderbook Hits Record 14.7 Million TEU
On September 23, 2026, shipping consultancy Alphaliner reported that container ships of roughly 27,500 TEU ('Gigamax-25') could become commercially viable during the 2030s, surpassing the current 24,000-TEU Megamax limit.
The proposed Gigamax design measures approximately 414 meters in length, 63.3 meters in beam, utilizes a 25-row container layout, features LNG dual-fuel propulsion, and operates at a service speed of 18 knots or below.
Alphaliner noted that Chinese shipyards have received new carrier inquiries for very large newbuildings.
Concurrently, global container orderbook data shows 1,795 vessels on order totaling a record 14.7 million TEU, with vessels of 10,000 TEU and above accounting for 68% of total ordered capacity.
Middle East-Asia Supertanker Charter Rates Surge to Record $1.2 Million Daily
On September 23, 2026, the Financial Times reported market data from shipbroker Braemar showing that daily charter rates for 2-million-barrel Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) operating between the Middle East and China surged to an all-time high exceeding $1.2 million per day (approx. 1.62 billion won), nearly doubling since late August.
Shipbroker Clarksons reported that approximately 15% of the global tanker fleet is currently tied up due to conflict disruptions, transshipment delays in the Gulf of Oman, and longer sailing distances, with Asian refiners sourcing alternative crude cargoes from Brazil, Guyana, West Africa, and the North Sea requiring 30 to 40 days of transit.
Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb Face Severe Shipping Disruption Following Fresh Attacks
Shipping operations across the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait faced severe disruption over a 48-hour period ending September 23, 2026.
In the Strait of Hormuz, Iran struck an oil tanker accused of unauthorized transit, causing commercial vessel traffic through the strait to drop sharply to only three to four ships daily, with several tankers turning off tracking systems.
Simultaneously, transit volumes through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait remained under sustained pressure due to continued attacks on shipping by Iran-backed Houthi forces from Yemen's Red Sea coast.
Baltic Dry Index Edges Down 0.1% to 3,430 Points as Capesize Rates Soften
On September 23, 2026, the Baltic Exchange's dry bulk freight index (BDI) edged down by 0.1% (2 points) to 3,430 points, ending a four-session winning streak while remaining near its highest level since September 14.
The Capesize Freight Index (BCI) dropped 0.5% to 5,861 points, with average daily earnings for Capesize vessels falling by $370.
In contrast, the Panamax Freight Index (BPI) rose 1.5% to 2,333 points, and the Supramax Freight Index (BSI) increased 0.1% to 1,778 points, reflecting structural divergence in global dry bulk market demand across vessel segments.
BIMCO Warns a 42% Containership Orderbook Could Create a 10% Capacity Surplus
BIMCO reported on September 23, 2026 that the global containership orderbook stands at 42% of the existing fleet’s total capacity of 34 million TEU.
Head-haul and regional trade volumes grew 6.3% in the first seven months of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025.
Total global container volumes grew 5.1% over the same span.
BIMCO Chief Shipping Analyst Niels Rasmussen noted that ongoing Cape of Good Hope reroutings still support the supply-demand balance in 2026.
Accelerated fleet delivery could leave container capacity 10% above demand if normal transits resume through the Suez Canal.
Panama Ship Registry Falls to Third Globally After Sanctions Compliance Clean-Up
According to the 2026 edition of the Clarksons Research World Fleet Register, released in September 2026, the Panama Ship Registry fell to third place globally by fleet tonnage.
The Panama-flagged fleet stood at 202.1 million gross tons (gt) across 7,677 vessels.
It ranked behind the Marshall Islands, with 209.4 million gt and 4,732 vessels, and market leader Liberia, with 314.6 million gt and 6,138 vessels.
Between late 2025 and August 2026, the Panama-flagged fleet contracted 12.3% from 230.5 million gt.
The registry removed non-compliant vessels to align with US sanctions.
Expert Outlook
Core judgment
The China–Mexico FCL corridor is being squeezed onto two clocks. Manzanillo stayed open to vessels of 500 GT or more—so container ships kept calling—on the same day Hurricane Polo swung from Category 5 to Category 4, while Acapulco, Zihuatanejo and smaller Pacific ports were closed or limited. Origin and valuation scrutiny, not ocean capacity, is becoming the binding constraint: electronic Value Manifestation format E2 is already set to become mandatory on 1 October, a Customs Law bill would let ANAM and SAT embargo cargo on any declared-value gap, USMCA round 4 slipped into October, and China immediately added two piperidone-derivative precursors to a USMCA-only export-permit list.
Drivers decoded
Mexican mid- and large-scale FCL importers and China-origin cargo owners want predictable CIF cost and dwell. They face unbudgeted detention of 4,000–14,000 pesos per day per unit plus USD 130–270 per day in extra container use, and E2 filing failures from 1 October. Volume switching among Pacific gateways and CAAAREM/INA pressure to keep IMMEX, auto and electronics inputs outside any embargo-on-value-gap rule are their levers. They treat Manzanillo weather as a delay they can absorb if customs does not also seize the boxes.
ANAM and SAT want tax yield and declared-value integrity without collapsing IMMEX chains that feed USMCA auto and electronics exports. Draft power to embargo on any value gap, the already-live RGCE E2 mandate from 1 October, and a five-day SEA/NICO suspension clock are the levers. Enforcement is tightening on valuation data, but ANAM has publicly carved IMMEX temporary-import regimes out of the political fight to keep productive-sector talks alive.
The United States government, through USTR and Commerce, postponed the fourth USMCA round so a summit with China's head of state and the G20 could take priority, while an 82% vehicle RVC, a 50% US-origin vehicle-content demand, and Section 232 steel at 50% remain instruments against Asian triangulation. Mexico kept 85% of its steel, aluminum and auto exports to the United States free of 232 and IEEPA tariffs and is seeking a steel cut from 50% to 25% and an auto rate below 15%.
Ocean carriers on China–Mexico FCL strings are defending utilization on the transpacific-to-Manzanillo trunk and a 4-to-5 import-heavy imbalance. A 524-special-container maiden sailing left Jiangyin for Manzanillo on 23 September on an approximately 22-day direct service, with lowered-profile boxes for Mexican rail-tunnel and bridge clearances. Cosco routes 100% of its transpacific regional calls through Manzanillo. Capacity is being added into the same gateway while a hurricane sits offshore.
Chain effects
Polo's swing between Category 5 and Category 4, together with the 500 GT floor, keeps Manzanillo open for container ships but leaves closures or minor-vessel restrictions at Lázaro Cárdenas, Acapulco, Puerto Marqués and Zihuatanejo, with 150–250 mm rain forecast in Michoacán and Guerrero, 75–150 mm in Colima, and orders to reinforce moorings. Asia-inbound FCL already concentrates on that funnel: January–August ports handled 6,512,648 TEU (+3.4%), Pacific ports 5,003,537 TEU (+7.1%), Manzanillo 2,824,839 TEU (+11.0%) and Lázaro Cárdenas 1,805,022 TEU (+4.9%), while Gulf ports fell 7.1%. The second-order effect is weather-driven berth and approach delay, not a full Pacific shutdown. If dwell stretches, manufacturing-component and consumer-goods pipelines that use Manzanillo as the Asia gateway come under continuity pressure.
The Second RGCE 2026 modification, in force 23 September, ends the prior Value Manifestation scheme on 30 September and makes electronic format E2 mandatory from 1 October; E15 stays optional until 31 December 2026. Importers and brokers who miss the electronic filing face SEA/NICO process risk on a five-day authority clock. Valuation data then becomes a standing SAT lever that can interact with any later embargo-on-value-gap statute.
The Customs Law draft filed on 8 September would drop the 50% value-gap threshold and authorize immediate precautionary embargo by ANAM and SAT. If enacted as drafted, detention of 4,000–14,000 pesos per day per unit plus USD 130–270 per day in extra container use would hit non-IMMEX consumer and sensitive goods at Manzanillo and other gateways; brokers have warned of congestion. Working sessions among CAAAREM, ANAM, SAT and SHCP will decide whether IMMEX, auto and electronics inputs stay carved out—the political bargain that currently contains the shock.
China's 22 September order immediately requires export permits for two additional piperidone-derivative precursors shipped to Mexico, the United States and Canada, taking the North American list to 18; destinations outside USMCA are unaffected. Mexican chemical and pharmaceutical FCL importers of those lines face new Chinese licensing and documentation before boxes can sail. The USMCA-only design is a bargaining chip ahead of the China–US summit, not a global chemical clamp.
The fourth USMCA round slipped from September to October so the summit with China's head of state could take priority, while USTR's 82% RVC and 50% US-origin vehicle-content demands remain tabled. Mexican auto and electronics FCL supply chains that source Asian components stay under triangulation scrutiny with no near-term rule freeze. Mexico's 2026 MFN average of 11.1%—after raising tariffs on 1,463 fractions, against a 36.2% WTO consolidated ceiling—remains available if it needs to tax Asian inputs to satisfy US pressure.
ANAM and SAT are the near-term beneficiaries on the Mexican side: IMMEX temporary-import regimes stay verbally untouched while the bill still drops the 50% threshold for other goods, and SAT has already locked E2 as mandatory from 1 October, expanding enforcement reach without surrendering the IMMEX concession. USTR extracted the round-4 postponement so the China summit could take priority; its 82% RVC, 50% US-origin and anti-triangulation agenda remain on the table, and Mexico's 52 technical meetings plus the 85% 232-exemption defense did not force a date. The cost of that dual squeeze sits with China-origin FCL importers at Pacific gateways.
Scenarios and signposts
Navy and weather language on Manzanillo remains open: whether the 500 GT floor is lifted, tightened or extended, and whether Lázaro Cárdenas moves from a minor-vessel restriction to full closure, over the next seven days.
First-week October filing quality remains open: broker and importer E2 error rates, SEA suspensions, and whether the five-day NICO-rectification clock is actually met.
The Deputies Finance Commission working sessions remain open: any written IMMEX, auto and electronics exclusion, restoration of a value-gap threshold, or adoption of CAAAREM's 24-hour, five-business-day and 72-hour hold.
The USMCA round-4 date remains unannounced, as does whether USTR restates 82% RVC and 50% US-origin vehicle content after the summit with China's head of state.
MOFCOM precursor-permit processing times for the two newly listed piperidone derivatives on Mexico-bound shipments remain unknown.
Manzanillo versus Lázaro Cárdenas weekly TEU and dwell versus the January–August run-rate, as Polo residual swell clears, remains to be seen.
Electronic format E2 is already set to become mandatory from 1 October, the prior Value Manifestation scheme ends on 30 September, and China's USMCA-only precursor list already stands at 18 chemicals as of 22 September.
In the baseline case, which is highly likely, Manzanillo keeps working 500+ GT container ships with weather-related approach and dwell friction rather than a full closure; E2 becomes mandatory on 1 October with a short filing-error spike; the embargo bill stays in working sessions with IMMEX still verbally protected; and USMCA round 4 is re-dated into October without a concluded RVC deal. Landed cost and transit for China-origin FCL remain under dual weather-plus-compliance pressure but without a new statutory embargo. That path holds if Polo continues to weaken or track without forcing a Manzanillo container-ship closure, SAT does not delay the 1 October E2 hard-cut, and Deputies keep the Customs Law text in inter-agency working sessions rather than floor passage this month.
In the optimistic case, which may materialize, Polo clears the Colima approaches quickly, Manzanillo berth windows normalize, and CAAAREM's 24-hour, five-business-day and 72-hour hold plus an IMMEX, auto and electronics exclusion is written into the bill. E2 go-live is operationally messy for a few days but does not produce mass SEA suspensions. China–Manzanillo FCL, including the new Jiangsu direct, recovers schedule integrity, and the landed-cost shock is limited to filing and compliance overhead. That path requires the Navy to lift the 500 GT restriction and smaller-port closures within days, and the Commission working sessions to adopt the fixed-deadline hold and IMMEX carve-out before any floor vote.
In the pessimistic case, which may materialize, Polo or residual swell forces longer Manzanillo restrictions just as E2 becomes mandatory, stacking weather dwell on valuation-filing errors. If the embargo-on-any-gap clause advances without the IMMEX and input carve-out, non-IMMEX consumer FCL faces instant holds at 4,000–14,000 pesos per day plus USD 130–270 per day in extra box use, and the congestion brokers have flagged at Manzanillo. USMCA delay leaves the 82% and 50% origin demands hanging, so China-input boxes stay under triangulation scrutiny. That path opens if sustained Pacific-port restrictions beyond a short weather window coincide with 1 October E2 cutover problems, and the Deputies text retains immediate embargo without a 50% threshold or IMMEX exclusion.
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